Sunak’s Brexit gamble

Since Britain voted to leave the European Union, every prime minister has had to grapple with the conundrum of the Irish border. How can Brexit be delivered, while protecting Northern Ireland’s place within the United Kingdom and avoiding a land border with the EU?

Theresa May tried to solve the dilemma with the Chequers agreement, which would have kept the whole of the UK in an effective customs union with Brussels. It ended her premiership. Boris Johnson opted to let Great Britain differ from EU rules, which excluded Northern Ireland and created a de facto border in the Irish sea. After initiallypromising there would be no checks on goods between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, Johnson introduced legislation to allow the UK to unilaterally override parts of the protocol to which his government had signed up. The EU retaliated with threats of a trade war. Things haven’t moved on much.

Now Rishi Sunak hopes to agree a new arrangement with Brussels to reduce friction between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. By some Whitehall estimates, 20 per cent of customs checked on the EU’s ‘external borders’ are on goods heading from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. As things stand, not a single unionist elected to Stormont backs the protocol, which raises the difficult issue of democratic consent. How can the government come up with a solution that the DUP will support?

The rebellion against Sunak’s plan started before anyone knew what it was. Sunak’s prime- ministerial predecessors are seeing red. A source close to Johnson has warned Sunak not to abandon the protocol bill, which is now on pause in the House of Lords. Liz Truss could be next – I understand that, as the minister who worked on the bill as foreign secretary, she is unlikely to back any deal that she believes to be less satisfactory than the protocol bill.

Will such interventions lead to a wider Tory rebellion? There are plenty of MPs who just want the situation resolved.