There was bad news for Rishi Sunak this lunchtime as Sir Jeffrey Donaldson confirmed that he and the seven other DUP MPs will vote on Wednesday against the Windsor Framework. Few in government were expecting the party to vote for the deal but some harboured hopes that the party might abstain or register a more muted protest. In a statement, Donaldson said there had been ‘significant progress’ but that ‘there remain key areas of concern’.
Chief among them is Sunak’s much-vaunted ‘Stormont brake’ which would not apply to existing EU laws. The DUP Westminster leader said that ‘whilst representing real progress the “brake” does not deal with the fundamental issue which is the imposition of EU law by the Protocol.’ He says there needs to be ‘clarification, change and re-working’ of the Windsor Framework
Donaldson was seen in No. 10 as one of the more conciliatory, deal-minded figures within his party’s ranks, who kept his counsel in recent weeks while others like the more openly hostile Ian Paisley Jr toured the TV studios. Donaldson’s announcement today will be a disappointment for those who harboured hopes of restoring power-sharing at Stormont, ahead of the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement. The DUP will not allow the Assembly and Executive to be restored until the Protocol is resolved to its satisfaction.
Around 80 per cent of voters in Northern Ireland want the DUP to return to government but the party knows the issue is existential for its core support. Jeffrey Donaldson’s own career was forged when he disagreed with the late David Trimble over the substance of the Belfast Agreement. History suggests that Unionist parties which act as reluctant salespeople for a deal rarely fare well. That said, some will be unimpressed with the party’s perceived intransigence. Theresa May’s former adviser Raoul Ruparel reacted to the news by tweeting that, ‘at every stage [the] DUP have voted against any form of agreement while putting forward precisely zero alternatives despite voting for Brexit.’
With 48 hours to go until the crucial Commons vote, Sir Jeffrey’s announcement has both reduced the possibility of a return at Stormont and increased the likelihood of a bigger rebellion among the European Research Group. All eyes will be on the number of Tory rebels and whether it is more than half the government’s current working majority of 66.
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