For a brief moment this morning it looked as though Rishi Sunak had finally had some good luck. Inflation figures, which came out today, show that the government has met its pledge to halve inflation this year as the rate fell to a two-year low of 4.6 per cent. But that’s about where the good news stops for Sunak. Just a few hours later, the Prime Minister and his government were dealt a significant blow when the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that his Rwanda scheme is unlawful.
As Alexander Horne explains on Coffee House, the Supreme Court upheld a previous decision from the Court of Appeal that the policy was unlawful. It reached that view because it believed there were substantial grounds to think that asylum claims would not be properly determined by the Rwandan authorities. That would mean that asylum seekers might be returned to a country where their life or freedom would be threatened, or where they would be subject to a risk of torture, inhuman or degrading treatment.
While the mood in the party is bleak, Sunak used a press conference this evening to insist he has a plan to get the scheme off the ground, despite the setback. The Prime Minister vowed to pass emergency legislation that would designate Rwanda a safe third country for migrants. He admitted that this alone would not entirely solve the problem as the UK could still face challenges on its international obligations. Sunak said that if Strasbourg were to try to block parliament’s wishes, he would ‘do what is necessary’ to get flights taking off.
But not everyone is impressed. An ally of the recently departed home secretary Suella Braverman tells Coffee House: ‘This is a treaty which he’s putting in legislation – it’s just another version of Plan A. He’ll be stuck in the courts again. More magic tricks from Rishi’s magical thinking.’ Braverman has her own plan: for the government to legislate to disapply the European Convention on Human Rights and three other international agreements from UK law as the only way to successfully control illegal migration. The New Conservatives – a group made up of 2019 MPs largely sympathetic to Braverman – have welcomed Sunak’s announcement but said his plan ‘must disapply the Human Rights Act and give effect to the policy notwithstanding the ECHR and Refugee Convention’.
It means that on top of Sunak having to try find a way around the Supreme Court’s ruling – with some legal voices sceptical that there is one – he faces the difficult situation of his former cabinet colleague on the backbenches pushing for a more hardline position. Expect the pressure on Sunak to grow wider in the party if he cannot show progress. The Prime Minister can at least take comfort that he is not the only party leader facing unhappy MPs. Later this evening MPs are due to vote on a variety of motions on Israel/Palestine – including calls for a ceasefire. If, as expected, some Labour frontbenchers back the SNP’s motion calling for one, then resignations and sackings could follow. We will have coverage on Coffee House as it happens.
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