The first big new policy announcement of the election campaign is in from the Tories, and it’s likely to be a talker. Where Keir Starmer appears to be opting for a ‘Ming vase’ strategy – trying not to rock the boat ahead of polling day – the Tories are leaning towards the opposite. At 20 points behind in the polls, aides believe they need headline-grabbing, bold policies in order to get the public’s attention. The first of which is the return of mandatory national service.
In what the Tories are billing as ‘a bold new model for national service for 18-year-olds’, they propose to make it mandatory for all 18-year-olds living in the UK to either carry out a full-time placement over 12 months in the armed forces, or one weekend per month for a year volunteering in their community. The Tories say they would set up a royal commission and have the first pilot open within a year – then it would be mandatory by the end of the parliament in 2029. In a statement, Rishi Sunak said:
This is a great country but generations of young people have not had the opportunities or experience they deserve and there are forces trying to divide our society in this increasingly uncertain world. I have a clear plan to address this and secure our future. I will bring in a new model of national service to create a shared sense of purpose among our young people and a renewed sense of pride in our country. This new, mandatory national service will provide life-changing opportunities for our young people, offering them the chance to learn real world skills, do new things and contribute to their community and our country.
So, what is the thinking behind this eye-catching pledge? Those close to the Prime Minister say that the new model for national service will answer some of today’s biggest problems. They point to recent protests where the young have supported hardline causes, to children being polarised on social media, and to unemployment – those who are no longer working as they have not learnt the skills they need to succeed. The argument goes that community work or military service will train up the UK’s youngsters with transferable skills and embed British values. As for the numbers, under the plans there would only be 30,000 places for the armed forces placement – which would be competitive and cover just 5 per cent of the relevant cohort. So the vast majority of 18-year-olds would end up being rejected from the military option and taking the civic route of community work.
The scheme appears to take inspiration from the Scandinavian model of national service – where they have a selective model for military service. The think tank Onward – which Sunak’s senior aide Will Tanner used to be in charge of – published a paper in August arguing that the government should reintroduce national service (abolished in 1960) to tackle the UK’s growing youth crisis. Former cabinet minister turned podcaster Rory Stewart called it a ‘clear, bold essential idea’. However, that report argued for an opt-out, whereas this policy is being billed as mandatory.
Already critics are making fun of the Tories over what they view as a backwards policy. The official Labour line is to argue it is an unfunded spending pledge of £2.5 billion (the Tories suggest the funding will come in addition to the 2.5 per cent of GDP spending pledge). It’s notable how different the two parties are approaching young people already – on the day the Tories put forward this policy, Keir Starmer suggested he would back votes for 16-year-olds. There are also questions of practicality. Would the government arrest those that don’t comply? This was raised in the Conservative’s internal briefing Q&A, although it was ruled out by Home Secretary James Cleverly on Sunday morning.
The small print is quite interesting. Sunak would fund National Service by axing the £2.6 billion UK Shared Prosperity Fund, a post-Brexit fund described when launched as ‘a central pillar of the UK government’s ambitious Levelling Up agenda and a significant component of its support for places across the UK.’ So money originally intended to support ‘high quality skills training, supporting pay, employment and productivity growth and increasing life chances,’ via the UKSPF would be used to bankroll Sunak’s new scheme.
For now, the Tories are keen for a fight on the issue, believing it will win them attention and put Labour under pressure about national pride and patriotism. It’s also no coincidence that the policy polls particular well with older voters and Reform party voters. It suggests the Tories are prioritising Reform switchers – and this policy is seen as a way to get them back.
How popular would it be? When Onward commissioned an poll for its scheme, it found ‘57 per cent of British people support national service versus 19 per cent who oppose it’. But its scheme was optional and it stressed that ‘the majority of people oppose a mandatory scheme, including nearly two-thirds of young people.’ When YouGov polled last September, it found 53 per cent were opposed to the idea of a year’s compulsory national service, with just 37 per cent in favour.
David Cameron’s National Citizen Service, brought in as part of his ‘Big Society’ idea in 2010, has been criticised as an expensive flop – with an audit finding it spent £10 million on unfilled places. Making it compulsory should, in theory, resolve that problem. Its broader electoral appeal, however, is another matter. The risk is that it looks like a way to force many 18-year-olds into unpaid labour.
Listen to Katy Balls and Fraser Nelson discuss Sunak’s new policy on Sunday’s Coffee House Shots podcast:
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