At the moment, the yes side has a growing lead in the polls http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3115. But, given the vast number of undecideds, this could change very quickly. The No campaign, though, will have to come up with some clearer, crisper messages to turn the tide.
The referendum will only go ahead in May if the bill clears parliament this week. This is going to require some late night sittings in both the Lords and the Commons, there are already four amendments introduced in the Lords that the coalition is committed to over-turning.
Two things to watch this week are whether Labour is prepared to risk delaying the referendum, something that would further sour relations with the Liberal Democrats, and how many Tory backbenchers will back Norman Lamont’s call (£) for the Commons to leave in the Lord’s amendment calling for the vote to be valid only if turnout is forty percent or above.