James Forsyth James Forsyth

The cease-fire is over

The Tories returned to the fray on the economy with David Cameron’s speech in the City this morning. There is much to criticise Gordon Brown for in terms of his economic management but Brown has done a brilliant job in the last couple of weeks in setting out a narrative that because he can’t be blamed for everything that has gone wrong with the financial system, he shouldn’t be blamed for anything. One respect in which Brown is Churchillian is in his view that history will be kind to you if you write it.

The Tories need to puncture this bubble with a set of clear and lucid arguments that don’t overreach. Cameron’s criticisms today of how much debt Brown had got Britain into, the unbalanced nature of the British economy and the government’s ineffective approach to regulation are the beginnings of a coherent case against the Prime Minister’s economic management.

On the Today programme, George Osborne received a rough ride about what the Tories would do differently in the short term and when the Tories had broken with Labour on the economy in the past. Certainly, the Tories pledge to match Labour’s spending commitments—a decision taken for understandable strategic reasons—is now limiting the Tories in their attempts to criticise Brown.

Some Tories at the moment are more panicked than the markets, convinced that the financial crisis has allowed Brown to get back in the game and shown up the weaknesses of the Tory top team. But once the crisis phases passes, the reality of recession will become a huge problem for Brown. Just consider today’s news that charities have criticised the nationalised Northern Rock for its aggressive approach to repossessions.

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