The closet radical

David Cameron’s path towards power has been long and winding, and may twist and turn yet more before the general election. Tony Blair’s march to Number 10 between 1994 and 1997 was relatively linear. Mr Cameron, in contrast, was underdog in his party’s leadership race in 2005, wobbled badly in the summer of 2007, recovered after the election-that-never-was and then faced a resurgent Gordon Brown as the scale of the global downturn became clear last September.

In the course of this political rollercoaster ride, it has been easy to lose sight of what ought to be the most important fact in British politics: namely that Mr Cameron is still likely to be the next Prime Minister. In recent weeks, that likelihood has hardened into high probability, as a string of opinion polls has shown the Tory leader enjoying a steady and substantial lead over Mr Brown — culminating in Tuesday’s Ipsos-Mori survey, which had the Tories on 48 points, with Labour 20 points behind.

It is time, then, to start treating the Conservatives as the supplicant government-in-waiting rather than a revived opposition, and to scrutinise their proposals accordingly. The stakes could scarcely be higher. Whoever enters Number 10 as Prime Minister on the morning after the general election will face a daunting task of economic reconstruction and lead a country whose confidence has been sapped not only by the terrible conse-quences of the crash, but by years of political and social failure, in which the state has grown as national morale has withered. Pragmatism and good intentions will not be enough. This is an hour for the courageous leadership that will make the necessary shock therapy possible and bearable.

Successful opposition leaders are essentially horse whisperers, especially if they lead parties that have been out of power for a long time.