John Ferry John Ferry

Scotland’s next constitutional fight won’t be over a referendum

(Getty images)

Get ready for a constitutional rammy during the first half of this, the sixth session of the Scottish parliament. Just don’t expect it to be over a second independence referendum.

Recent polling shows momentum has moved back in favour of those wishing to remain in the UK, while signals from the public also consistently suggest a lack of appetite for another referendum anytime soon. Nicola Sturgeon knows this, which means the phoney war over a repeat plebiscite will likely trundle on without bringing any great change to the country.

The real action is elsewhere. Specifically, the upcoming review of the Fiscal Framework Agreement, which is set to be fraught and, unlike the referendum debate, actually has the potential to impact Scotland.

Signals from the public consistently suggest a lack of appetite for another referendum anytime soon

The Fiscal Framework Agreement was established in 2016 following the devolution of further tax and welfare powers to Holyrood. It sets out how Scotland’s budget is calculated, including adjustments to the block grant (the funding that comes directly from the UK government) to account for new tax and spending responsibilities, and what borrowing powers the Scottish government has. In setting out the framework, the UK and Scottish governments agreed it should be reviewed in 2022 and that this will be ‘informed by an independent report with recommendations presented to both Governments by the end of 2021’.

As yet there is no word on who will produce that independent report, what the scope of it will be, and what type of analysis it will include. Already there are signs of tension on the review’s breadth and purpose. When the current framework was agreed, the intention was for the 2022 appraisal to focus on the block grant adjustment (BGA) methodology, as this was especially contentious. But Nicola Sturgeon’s government has made it clear it wants to see a much wider audit that could effectively lead to a complete re-writing of the existing devolution settlement.

In its 2021 Medium Term Financial Strategy report,

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