Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The coming showdown

Angela Merkel is running out of nice things to say about David Cameron and the Tory rebels who are dictating his European policy. Der Spiegel magazine recently compared the British to ‘at best spectators in the gallery like Statler and Waldorf, the two old men on The Muppet Show’. This was apparently after a briefing from Merkel’s office.

If she thinks the Tories are bad, the public are much worse. Over the summer, the European Commission asked 32,000 people across the continent what they thought about the EU. The Poles are still enthusiastic, the austerity-stricken Irish less so. The Italians are smarting from having lost their prime minister and the Greeks are a bit raw over the sado-austerity. But the most hostile EU member state, by a clear margin, is Britain. Barely a third of us regard EU membership as a benefit and just one in six of us take a ‘positive view’ of it.

As Merkel will know, there is only so long a democracy can be kept in a club against the wishes of its people. The EU model has so far depended on the collusion of elites, but in Britain this model is failing. Public opinion has found a way into the debate, being regularly and elegantly expressed through parliamentary rebellions. The most recent one saw the House of Commons tell the Prime Minister not to come back from next week’s summit with an EU budget for 2014-20 that involves spending increases. Having already portrayed himself as a veto-wielding Boudicca, it would be hard for Mr Cameron to defy them.

As one senior diplomat puts it, ‘a ruction is now far closer than we think’, but not because of British exasperation. The ruction could come from Merkel and others who are thinking of ways to circumvent Britain, cutting us out of the important decisions while keeping our £8 billion-a-year membership fees.

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