David Patrikarakos David Patrikarakos

The dark past of Iran’s new presidential favourite

Iranian presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi (Getty images)

‘Each vote counts…come and vote and choose your president. This is important for the future of your country.’ These were the words of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei this morning as he urged people to make their voices heard in today’s presidential election.

Each vote doesn’t count, of course. The regime makes sure of that. Iran ‘manages’ its elections. This year, 600 people registered as candidates, now only seven remain. The unelected Guardian Council, which consists of 12 ‘jurists’ (clerics), is responsible for ensuring all candidates are compatible with ‘Islamic values’. 

What this means is that it can disqualify pretty much anyone it doesn’t like, and the real reasons the council generally disqualifies people are almost invariably to do with politics rather than religion.

Sometimes, though, the Council gets it wrong. 

In 2013, everyone thought the winner would be the hardline then Mayor of Tehran, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. Instead, the (comparative) moderate Hassan Rouhani won with over 50 per cent of the vote, precluding even the need for a second round. The following eight years saw repeated struggles between Rouhani’s more reform-minded circle and those around the Supreme Leader.

‘The regime uses these elections to legitimise the government, to say it has the support of the people. But it’s nothing to do with that’

They won’t make the same mistake again. Among the prominent candidates the Council barred from standing were Eshaq Jahangiri, Rouhani’s first vice-president, and Ali Larijani, a conservative former speaker of parliament.

Four now remain: Amir-Hossein Qazizadeh Hashem, a doctor and hardliner; Abdolnaser Hemmati, governor of the Central Bank of Iran; Mohsen Rezai, secretary of the Expediency Council, which advises the Supreme Leader; and Ebrahim Raisi, chief Justice of Iran – and the overwhelming favourite.

By clearing the way for Raisi to win, the Supreme Leader’s coterie is doing two things: one, they are ensuring their man takes control of the presidency; and two: they are sending a message to the Iranian people, and to the world.

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