The free world’s new reality

We are about to see brutality in Europe on a scale that will be almost beyond our comprehension. Russia is turning to increasingly indiscriminate bombardment of Ukraine to try to achieve its aims after the failure of its initial military strategy. Vladimir Putin’s invasion has shattered the old belief that the era of wars between European nation states was over because the consequences were simply too grim. The policy of sanctions as a deterrent failed. The assumptions that have driven European geopolitics for a generation are changing before our eyes.

Nowhere is this shift more dramatic than in Germany. After reunification, the country’s defence spending plummeted and for decades subsequent governments rejected requests from allies to spend more on military. Chancellor Olaf Scholz has now announced that Germany will not use Nord Stream 2, the recently completed pipeline intended to bring Russia gas straight into the country. Even more strikingly, Germany will meet the Nato target of spending 2 per cent of GDP on defence (a rise from 1.5 per cent) by 2024 – a big shift in policy, but one backed overwhelming by public opinion.

In a further sign of how far the debate in Germany has shifted, Robert Habeck, the Green vice-chancellor, has said he is open to keeping the country’s nuclear power plants open beyond the end of this year when, by law, they are supposed to be shut off. Even if this doesn’t happen, Habeck’s comments show that the German government is finally realising the dangers of dependence on Russian energy. Privately, senior figures in Berlin are suggesting to their European partners that they can stop importing Russian gas within two years. Russia supplies a quarter of the gas used by France and more than half of the gas used by Poland and the Baltic states. If these countries can find other sources of energy, they can reduce Putin’s leverage over the continent.