Sophy Ridge has a good scoop in The News of the World today: the government is operating on the assumption that the number of unemployed will peak at 3.5 million in October 2010. This would be the largest number of people unemployed in modern British history. Indeed when you add in the people on other out of work benefits, it would suggest that the real figure for unemployment will be around 6 million.
That unemployment will not reach its peak until October 2010—after the next election—suggests that the economy will not start growing again in the third quarter of this year as Brown and Darling predicted in the PBR. It looks certain that the economic forecasts in the PBR will have to be revised downwards in the Budget this year, causing yet more damage to Labour’s standing on the economy.
PS Some Coffee Housers have asked why we haven’t blogged on Jacqui
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