The Great Pundit Hope: A Deadlocked Convention

The Santorum Surge is, plainly, grand news for pundits desperately in search of new ways of spinning out the low drama and even lower comedy of this year’s Great Presidential Handicap. Nothing, equally plainly, could be better than a race that stretches into June. Nothing, that is, save a deadlocked convention this summer and all the fun and chaos that would ensue from that. Can Mitt Romney actually win the 1,144 delegates he needs to secure the nomination?

The Washington Examiner’s Philip Klein has his doubts, reckoning that, should matters continue as they are, Romney could still come up short. That’s based, in part, on the fact that many states this year will award their delegates on a proportional basis. And, yet, the qualification – should the race continue much as it has gone thus far – is vital. I think it most improbable that it will. But, for the sake of argument, let one assume it will. Romney is still much better placed than his rivals. It is true that the proportional allocation of delegates clouds the issue but some states will award their delegates – and, importantly, bind those delegates – on a winner takes all basis. These contests fall into three categories:

Advantage Romney: Florida (50 delegates), Arizona (29), Michigan (30), Virginia (46), Vermont (17), Washington DC (16), Connecticut (25), Delaware (17), California (169), New Jersey (50), Utah (40). Total: 501.

Advantage Santorum/Gingrich: Ohio (63), Kansas (40). Total: 103.

Toss-up: Maryland (37), Wisconsin (39). Total: 76.

As you can see, Romney is, at least in theory, favoured in more winner-takes-all states than his opponents. That’s a hefty advantage for him, notionally making his path to the nomination gentler than any open to his opponents. To put it another way: will Romney do better in “proportional” states in which he is not favoured (ie, the south) than his opponents will in winner-takes-all states in which Romney is presumed to have an advantage? Probably though not certainly!

It’s not quite as simple as that, however: Michigan, Vermont, Ohio, Virginia and Kansas award their 10 “At Large” delegates on a proportional basis and the 3 delegates from each Congressional district on a Winner-Takes-All count. So Romney would need to sweep every Congressional District in, say, Michigan to win 90% of Michigan’s delegates. (It must also vex Romney that Florida, Arizona and Michigan have lost 50% of their delegates for ignoring GOP guidance on when they should hold their primaries.)

Another wrinkle: Ohio awards its delegates on a winner-takes-all basis if one candidate receives more than 50% of the votes cast; New York (which favours Romney) does the same with its 92 delegates.

It is also the case that if Romney has to rely on California, New Jersey and Utah, each of whom vote late in the process then he is in some difficulty. Nevertheless, if it is even plausibly tricky to plot Romney’s path to a majority it is almost impossible to conceive circumstances, for as long as Gingrich, Santorum and Paul continue to split the non-Romney vote, in which any of them can supplant Mitt as the front-runner.

Then there are the 340 so-called “Super-delegates” who are free to vote for whomever they please. Equally, delegates from Illinois (69), Pennsylvania (72), Wyoming (29), North Dakota (28) and Montana (26) plus Guam, the US Virgin Islands, the Marianas Islands and American Samoa (9 each) are not bound to support the winner of the contests in those states.

So while the winning post is notionally 1,144 it may, in reality, require fewer delegates than that to get past the winning post. For instance, if Romney has, for the sake of argument, 950 delegates bound to support him then I find it hard to imagine the circumstances in which Super-Delegates and many of their unbound colleagues will not swing behind Romney to push him past the magic 1,144 mark.

Granted, a Romney implosion could change all this and it is, in any case, a highly speculative enterprise. Nevertheless, if one makes the foolish assumption that what has been will continue to be – ie, the pattern of the race remains as it has been – then Romney is still, with all his weaknesses and allowing for all the qualifications and hedging of bets you could desire, by some distance the most plausible nominee.

A deadlocked convention would be a mighty entertainment. That, of course, is one reason why the Republican party will do all it can to avoid such a spectacle. For shame but also, alas, for real.

Anyway, CNN have provided a nifty Delegate Counter with which you can play around, constructing any number of elaborate scenarios to persuade yourself Mitt is Doomed or, if you prefer, confirm the sorry fact that he’s still the favourite.