The growing mystery of a coup without a conspiracy

Last week’s display of virtuosity by Michael Howard was immaculate, ruthless, perfectly executed: high politics at its purest and most beautiful. His clarity of vision, contemptuous facing down of opposition, cunning, efficiency, resolve, above all the compression of eight weeks’ weary business into 90 minutes’ decisive action, combined to clear the battlefield with a single strike. Nothing as Napoleonic in audacity or scope has been seen at Westminster since Tony Blair’s seizure of the commanding heights of the Labour party ten years ago.

This was one of those extremely rare occasions when the political correspondent really needs the skills of the art critic. The only proper initial emotion was awe and wonderment: just as Ruskin felt when he first saw Venice. In due course, however, the intellect must come into play, and seek to make sense of the events that stretch so sleekly across the surface. As things stand, last week’s important, perhaps conclusive, turnaround in Conservative party fortunes is unexplained. The phenomenon is there for all to see, the event has taken place, the consequences can be discerned, but no one knows why it happened, or how.

The first and the biggest mystery is Michael Howard himself. The publicly available account of events makes little sense. Apparently he was utterly loyal. He was visibly to hand throughout Duncan Smith’s last convulsions; by his side at photocalls, writing loyal newspaper articles at critical moments. When tested, privately or by journalists, he never uttered a disloyal word. His supporters have been scrupulous. David Cameron, Howard’s urbane lieutenant, went to the extreme lengths of voting for Duncan Smith in Wednesday’s confidence motion. Until the very last moment, Michael Howard flatly ruled out the possibility that he would run for the leadership. These adamant, though entirely misleading, denials left no room for argument.