Daniel McCarthy

The hawk in No. 10

Will Cameron play the Bush to Obama’s Blair?

Will Cameron play the Bush to Obama’s Blair?

Eight years ago an American president led a passive British prime minister into a war both countries would regret. David Cameron is eager for history to repeat itself, with the national roles reversed. While Barack Obama dithers, Cameron demands tough action against Libya — with a western-imposed no-fly zone seemingly uppermost on his mind. ‘Do we want a situation where a failed pariah state festers on Europe’s southern border,’ he asks, ‘potentially threatening our security, pushing people across the Mediterranean and creating a more dangerous and uncertain world for Britain and for all our allies, as well as for the people of Libya?’

Yet a failed state is exactly what Libya would become if Britain and America intervene. Cameron’s hawkish position may win him friends in Washington — Senator John McCain has been particularly glowing about ‘the leadership that Prime Minister Cameron has shown’ — but he is deceiving himself about the Libyan insurgency. Not all of Gaddafi’s enemies are the West’s friends, and many would be eager to turn their arms against foreigners. As one fighter in Benghazi told the Guardian, ‘If the Americans came, the people would fight them in the streets, just like Iraq.’

And a no-fly zone would be hardly more than a prelude to the Americans coming. Gaddafi’s air power is secondary — his tanks, artillery, and mercenaries are his primary weapons. Not only a no-fly zone, but airstrikes, at a minimum, would be needed to delay him. Yet short of introducing ground forces, nothing America and Britain could do would guarantee victory for the rebels.

What happened in Iraq after the first Gulf War is instructive. Shia encouraged by George H.W. Bush to believe they would be supported by America rebelled against Saddam Hussein and were slaughtered.

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