On the face of it, 2024 is a great year for democracy. Britain is one of 50 countries to hold elections, with a record two billion people globally expected to have cast a vote by Christmas. This is partly down to the growing number of democratic countries, particularly in the past three decades. Last year the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index judged two more to have made the grade, bringing the tally to 74. Alongside that, there is greater participation and wider suffrage.
No one has worked out how to win elections while telling the public to expect less from government
In Britain the past five weeks cannot be said to have shown democracy at its shining best, though. Our political system has felt jaded. This is not because it isn’t functioning properly: the party leaders have dutifully agreed to debate each other on national platforms; there have been hundreds of constituency hustings; the issues at stake have been widely discussed. Few people suggest that the balloting process will be anything other than scrupulously fair.
Yet there is an overwhelming sense of ennui among public and politicians alike. Labour is positioning itself to be a government of continuity, while mouthing platitudes about change. The Conservatives called an election for which they were hopelessly unprepared and, as a result, have ended up talking palpable nonsense for most of the campaign. The Liberal Democrats have made clowning into a political strategy, as if aiming for the soft protest vote. Nigel Farage is bidding for a ruder, cruder protest vote.
It’s hard to see signs that any party can promise a credible way out of the morass. Where are the ideas? Where is the compelling new agenda? A succession of compromises has drained the lifeblood out of the Tories, and Keir Starmer thinks he can win by playing dead. He is posing as the least bad option. The Conservatives, meanwhile, look no more likely to come up with a decent plan of action than Labour; and Farage looks quite likely to be a destructive force that could lead to ten to 15 years of Labour government – though he himself probably won’t hang around that long.
Emmanuel Macron, like many national leaders, is seeing a vote of no confidence passed on his grandstanding. The United States still leads the world culturally, scientifically, economically and militarily; yet it has somehow reduced its presidential race to the unpalatable choice between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
As Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak’s error was to take the same hands-on approach he did at the Treasury in lockdown. It hasn’t worked. There appears to be a declining respect for elected representatives the world over; the role has descended to that of all-purpose punchbag. It’s not hard to see why. Governments are growing out of all proportion to their usefulness – the machinery has become so unwieldy that it cannot function properly.
Promises are not being kept, because undeliverable promises are being made. People are routinely offered help with aspects of life that until recently were regarded as down to them: early-years child care; having to pay for care in old age (for those who could afford it). No one has yet worked out how to win elections while telling the public to expect less from government.
By the next set of elections, some trends will be clearer. Panic about immigration may be giving way to panic about the low birth rate and the consequent implications of a permanently shrinking tax base. The NHS model will collapse if it is not reformed. The oppressive effects of net-zero policies will be becoming apparent, as will the fact that economies cannot flourish under a crushing tax burden. Starmer will unintentionally demonstrate all of these points in the next few years – and then he will probably double down on big-government solutions. It’s not impossible that by then the Tories may have a more coherent alternative vision to offer.
It’s wrong to blame democracy for a set of uninspiring menu options, however. There are new challenges emerging – identity politics, climate issues, post-Covid dilemmas, gender wars, tech vs protectionism – and the parties are not quite sure how to respond. So they rely on clichés instead and are flummoxed when they fall flat. Politics is about finding new ways to make and win arguments. We have too few politicians with the courage and ability to do so.
Democracy itself may need to defend itself. The rise of China and the Gulf States seems to refute the old argument that it is a precondition for prosperity. The last few years have given rise to a new phenomenon of autocracy envy: not just in Nigel Farage’s expression of admiration for Vladimir Putin, but in the rise of illiberal Conservatism: the tighter restrictions on free speech, protests, smoking, sugar, ID-free voting and more. A recent opinion poll across 30 countries found that more than a third of 18- to 35-year-olds approved of the idea of a strong leader who would do away with legislature and elections.
The overwhelming impression left by this general election campaign is that voters are deeply uninspired by the choices on offer. There are too few coherent solutions to a seemingly never-ending list of problems.
Voters have never been more open-minded about where their political allegiance lies and are keen to hear new ideas. We can only hope that, in the election after next, some may be forthcoming.
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