The Irish gamble

Never has a European Council been so important to a British prime minister as this December’s is to Theresa May. In No. 10 there has long been a belief that if she can get ‘sufficient progress’ in the Brexit talks to move on to trade and the transition, it will provide her with a political adrenalin shot. This is why a reshuffle has been pencilled in for afterwards. But if she fails to achieve her aim at the December council, her premiership will be further destabilised.

The trouble is that when it comes to Brexit, the Prime Minister tends to postpone talking to her cabinet until as late as possible. It was only this week that the cabinet’s new Brexit strategy committee discussed how much the UK was prepared to offer to move things on. After those present promised not to leak anything, the committee did at least agree that the UK should offer significantly more money.

This offer of extra cash is meant to come with various safeguards to ensure that the EU does not bank the concession and then demand more, which is what No. 10 feels happened after May’s Florence speech. As one minister explains: ‘What everyone sees coming is getting screwed on the money in phase one and financial services in phase two.’ This is why Downing Street is trying to reassure people that no money will be handed over unless the final deal is deemed acceptable.

What is no nearer resolution is the kind of final relationship with the EU that the UK is aiming for. Boris Johnson hoped the government would have made more internal progress on this point. Instead, there have been only vague assurances that this matter — which is far more important than the money or the transition — will be discussed before the end of the year.