Des Moines, Iowa
Quite remarkably on the eve of the Iowa caucuses both the Democratic and Republican races are far too close to call. The determining factor on both sides will be turnout.
Obama is hoping to bring independents, disgruntled Republicans and first time caucus goers into the process and if he can succeed in doing this he’ll win: high turnout equates to an Obama victory. Many have questioned the wisdom of this strategy, arguing that expanding the universe of caucus goers is what Howard Dean tried and failed to do. But one very senior Republican told me today that he thinks Obama can pull it off, noting how professional his Iowa field organisation is.
Hillary will likely win if turnout is middling, in the Des Moines Register poll she leads among Democrats. The good news for her is that the weather is relatively fine here; meaning that she should be able to turn out the older women that her campaign has been targeting.
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