James Kanagasooriam

The margin between a Tory landslide and defeat is tiny

In next week’s election, it feels like voters would elect a Conservative president and a centre-left parliament if they had the choice. Denied those options they are muddling their way to a conclusion. But what will they decide?

Firstly, it’s worth remembering that Corbynomics is popular. YouGov generically polled Labour policies and they were popular. But being likeable or popular is different to being credible or possible. Corbynomics has been partially neutralised by the Tories shifting sharply to the left on economics.

Secondly, Boris Johnson’s favourability ratings have endured against Corbyn in a way that Theresa May’s did not. Last week, we reached an interesting cross-over point where the Tory campaign is doing better versus Labour for the first time than when compared to its lead over Labour during the 2017 campaign.

That said Labour’s manifesto hasn’t lit the red touch paper as it did in 2017. Back then, tuition fees was an issue that cut right to the heart of intergenerational fairness. Free train tickets, Wi-Fi and a four-day week is what you expect if you work at Google, not as government policy.

Thirdly, the critical thing about the Red Wall, which the Tories hope to surmount, is how big an area it covers. It’s a very large universe of addressable gains the Tories could make, meaning the Tory campaign only has to be partly-successful to win enough seats. You can miss out on Workington if you win Leigh.

Fourthly, many of the assumed double-digit losses that the Tories would endure don’t look so certain now. There are positive noises for the Tories from liberal heartlands (bar Richmond) and Scotland. The bar for Conservative majority Government has been lowered significantly without many people noticing.

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