The moral debate over Covid jabs for children

Israel has the world’s attention, becoming the first country to achieve mass vaccination. What it does now may be followed worldwide. The first big development has been the use of immunity ID cards which give vaccinated Israelis access to gyms, indoor restaurants and — soon — holidays in Greece. Britain is preparing to follow suit, with Michael Gove considering UK vaccine certificates ahead of the great unlocking on 21 June. He’s widely expected to come out in favour of IDs in some form.

But the other idea attracting interest in Whitehall is Israel’s plan to vaccinate children. Israel’s deputy health minister Yoav Kisch has said those aged 12 to 16 could start to be vaccinated next month, pending regulatory approval. A few weeks ago, Israel spotted a problem with their plan to hit herd immunity. No one is quite sure what the magic number is, but the general assumption is that if you hit 80 per cent of the population you’re there. But how to get there? If vaccines are 70 per cent effective in stopping all infections and 80 per cent of the people got vaccinated, then just 56 per cent of the population would have immunity from vaccination. Mass vaccination of adults alone may not be enough.

Nachman Ash, Israel’s national vaccine coordinator, raised concerns about this. ‘The fact that children under the age of 16 are not currently getting vaccinated is certainly troubling, in terms of the ability to achieve herd immunity,’ he said in January. Last month, Israel became the first country in the world to vaccinate over-12s who have specific risk factors — but the idea is to extend this to all over-12s in the coming weeks. One of the worries in Israel is that high transmission of Covid among unvaccinated youth could produce new vaccine-resistant variants.