On Sunday morning Channel 4’s Michael Crick put out the following Tweet about Steven Woolfe, the Manchester-born barrister and MP who was then the hot odds-favourite to become the next UKIP leader.
I hear Steven Woolfe has failed to be nominated for leader of Ukip. His form came in 20 minutes late, I'm told.
— Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) July 31, 2016
As a political gambler this was massive news with the potential for relatively risk-free profits. For at the time Woolfe was rated as 72 per cent chance on the online Betfair betting exchange which, unlike traditional bookmakers, offers the opportunity to bet that a particular outcome will not happen. In effect you can become the bookie laying bets that others want to place.
As a general rule try to ensure that I am logged into my Betfair account at most times when there are active political events and ensure there are sufficient funds available so I can react quickly to pieces of news like the Crick Tweet. I moved in as fast as I could and managed to take some of the bets that Woolfe backers were trying to place at odds that rated his chances at greater than 50 per cent
Within five minutes I had guaranteed profits of £666 assuming that Woolfe would be off the ballot and be denied the opportunity of succeeding Nigel Farage. Within a short period other political gamblers had got the message too and the Woolfe odds edged out from about 2/5 to 10/1.
Then the doubts started to set in. It began to emerge on Twitter that he had sought to get his nomination papers in with about 25 minutes to go, but because, it was said, of the slowness of UKIP’s internet system they hadn’t arrived until 12.17 – seventeen minutes after the deadline.
Surely as that was not apparently his fault then an exception would be made? His odds started to move in and by the end of Sunday he had become an odds-on favourite again. While this was happening I endeavoured to cover most of the money I had risked by backing Woolfe at much longer odds than I had laid at him during the morning. I managed to square it so I would make about £250 whatever happened.
Yesterday afternoon Huffington Post Tweeted about an ‘exclusive’ it had that Woolfe had a conviction for drunken driving which he had not declared when he had stood as UKIP candidate for Police and Crime Commissioner. Making a false declaration could be a criminal offence and would surely be a serious matter for those within his party to consider when deciding whether he could be on the ballot or not. So for me it was back onto Betfair reversing my previous play safely move and I began betting against Woolfe again by laying what was available on Betfair. Unlike Sunday morning, several others had seen the opportunity and there was not that much I could pick up.
Whether Woolfe gets on the ballot should be resolved later today. Even if he is the affair has raised questions which might make it harder for him to win. Diana James, the MEP who nearly became UKIP’s first MP in the February 2013 Eastleigh by-election, is now the odds-on favourite. Although the UKIP leadership market lacked liquidity and the sums involved were quite small, this does illustrate how the instant nature of news on Twitter and the ability to use an online betting exchange like Betfair presents opportunities. Market sensitive news, like new polls, is usually first seen in Tweets. But unfortunately you also have to be on the watch for spoof info on Tweets too.
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