The result of the general election in England might be regarded as inevitable, with even Labour MPs telling constituents it’s safe to vote for them because Jeremy Corbyn is not going to become prime minister. But in Scotland, there’s a fierce contest going on between the SNP and the Tories, and this is where the focus of the election might move in the coming days.
With a YouGov survey today reporting a surge in support for the Conservatives in Scotland, there was cause for cautious celebration at CCHQ. The poll says that the Tories are on course to gain seven seats in Scotland, including the constituency currently held by Angus Robertson, the SNP’s Westminster leader. What’s more, in a boost to the Unionist cause, over half the population – 51 per cent – oppose another independence referendum completely.
The findings cap off a pretty bad seven days for the Scottish nationalists. When the snap election was first announced, Sturgeon claimed that if the SNP won the general election in Scotland it would mean ‘Theresa May’s attempt to block our mandate to hold another referendum when the time is right will crumble to dust’. But this week, Sturgeon attempted to change tack after two previous polls showed a surge of support for the Scottish Tories, with one putting their rating at 33pc.
As a result, on Monday, the First Minister backtracked on her previous comments and claimed the election would not ‘decide whether or not Scotland becomes independent’ – instead it was now about standing up to the Tories. The next day, Sturgeon cancelled a statement that she was due to make to the Scottish parliament to set out her next steps towards getting a second referendum on independence.
Now her spokesman says this will only be delayed until after the election. But the fact that Sturgeon has changed her strategy shows that she knows that her party is losing momentum on independence. Since 2014, the SNP have relied on a sense that independence was the future. That looks less convincing now.
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