Any uncertainty about the extent of the damage inflicted on the SNP by the criminal investigation into party finances can be safely disregarded. An extensive poll by YouGov suggests that those scenes of a police forensics tent outside Nicola Sturgeon’s Glasgow home, and the arrest of her husband, the SNP chief executive, Peter Murrell, have done lasting damage in the SNP heartland.
According to this survey of 3,500 Scots, conducted in April and May, the Nationalists stand to lose 21 of their 48 MPs in the next general election – including nearly all their Glasgow seats. Labour would return 24 seats across Scotland, up from only one. This could be enough to put Keir Starmer in No. 10 with a majority and pitch Humza Yousaf out of Bute House in a palace coup. It would be the 2015 election tsunami in reverse.
YouGov’s assessment is unambiguous: ‘accusations of party mismanagement and potential criminal cases being brought against senior officials have taken a serious toll’.
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