The Tories are doing worse than feared

These local elections – last fought at the height of the vaccine bounce of 2021 – were always going to be tough for the Conservatives. But the evidence thus far suggests the party has done worse than most initially feared. At 1:30 p.m, Tory losses were running at 44 per cent of total contests, according to YouGov’s Dylan Difford. That’s worse than the equivalent 38 per cent figure for the Tories in 1971, the most dire set of local election results for a party on record. For Kemi Badenoch, who became leader six months ago today, it could spell trouble.

There are many more contests to declare, of course, but that figure is the kind of ballpark which Badenoch is now in. There are precious few rays of light for the Tories. In Cambridgeshire, Paul Bristow’s hard work looks set to be rewarded later today in the mayoral race there. An optimist might look at Northumberland, where the Conservatives still remain the largest party – and Labour lost more councillors in a council area where they swept all the seats last July. But the desperation to find something positive to say is demonstrated by Tory spinners’ focus on Labour’s poor performance across much of the country. ‘We’re bad but they’re doing worse,’ is hardly an inspiring platform for change.

Already, a number of Tory MPs and staff are getting in touch to warn that Badenoch needs to assert a step change in response to these results. In true-blue Lincolnshire, Reform’s mayoral candidate Andrea Jenkyns stormed to victory, crushing her former party by more than two votes to one. In Devon, Reform pushed the Tories into third. The West of England mayoralty saw the Conservatives placed between the Lib Dems and the Greens. The mood music out of Kent is ominous: the Tories could be reduced to less than half a dozen seats. This is an existential threat for Badenoch’s party. As one of Nigel Farage aide puts it: ‘In 2023, they lost their districts [councils]. In 2024, they lost their MPs. In 2025, they lost their counties [councils].’

That quote in itself shows the blessing and the curse facing Badenoch. On the one hand, she can, rightly, point to the extent of the Tory rot which she is now being asked to resolve. On the other, she risks being the undertaker of a party in terminal decline. The next twelve months will make or break her as leader. But the situation in Wales – where the party is torn between devo-enthusiasts and sceptics – suggests the story of the May 2025 elections will be repeated come May 2026.