The 2017 Conservative Manifesto proclaimed that ‘the last seven years have seen historical falls in crime’ and promised to build on that record. The crime figures out today show that police-recorded crime increased by 13 per cent in the 12 months to June 2017. Was the increase the result of Government policies? And how much can we rely on the figures?
We have got so used to the crime figures being manipulated that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) felt it necessary in today’s release to state several times whether or not the figures were real. On the overall increase of 13 per cent it says ‘we judge that there have been genuine increases in crime – particularly in some of the low incidence but more harmful categories’.
Violence against the person was up 19 per cent but this broad category includes scuffles that amount to no more than ‘pushing and shoving’ without physical injury. The increase for violence with injury was 10 per cent. The Government likes to say that the Crime Survey for England and Wales (previously called the British Crime Survey) is the best measure of long-term trends, and the ONS reports that this survey of 38,000 respondents found no change in crimes of violence in the 12 months to June 2017. But the report admits that about 20 per cent of the rise in police-recorded violence against the person is in categories not covered by the crime survey. Consequently, it concludes there has been a genuine increase in violent crime, including the most serious forms, knife and gun crime. Knife crime was up 26 per cent, nearly half of which was in London. Again, mistrust is the order of the day and the ONS feels it has to reiterate that ‘the main driver has been a genuine rise in knife crime’.
Since Michael Howard introduced his ‘prison works’ policy in 1993, theft of most types has been falling. But today’s police figures show an increase of 11 per cent, with burglary up 6 per cent and vehicle-related theft up 17 per cent. Paradoxically the crime survey shows a reduction in theft, but the ONS thinks the police figures for burglary and vehicle theft are more reliable and ‘likely to reflect a genuine rise’.
During the last 20 years there has not only been a fall in crime but also a change in its nature. Two decades ago we faced a big risk of burglary and car theft, but over the years criminals have turned their hands to online fraud, as well as bank and credit card fraud. The crime survey did not even ask about fraud until 2015 and the latest figures are considered provisional until they are confirmed in January 2018. If you miss out fraud, there were 5.812 million crimes according to the survey. But there were 4.946 million cases of fraud and computer misuse, which produces a grand total of 10.758 million crimes.
This exclusion of millions of crimes has made possible a massive distortion of public understanding. Police figures show only 653,000 fraud offences, but the ONS says that the police statistics ‘give a very partial picture of the extent of fraud’ and that the survey is more complete.
Is any of the increase the Government’s fault? Since 2010, the Government has cut the number of police officers from a peak of 143,000 in 2009 to 123,000 in 2017. This inevitably means that the police are less able to be a presence on our streets. The impact of the fall in numbers has been worsened by the discouragement of ‘stop and search’ while Theresa May was Home Secretary. Many senior officers have attributed the rise in knife crime to the reduction in the use of stop and search.
Can we say that the increase in burglary and car-related theft is the result of cutting the police presence on our streets? Some chief police officers continue to claim that it has made no difference, but if you speak to senior officers with operational responsibility for reducing crime in their own patch, they have little doubt about the deterrent effect of visible uniformed officers. One example must suffice, easily dismissed as an anecdote by anyone who is reluctant to face facts. A few years ago police in Tower Hamlets flooded an area with officers for a couple of weeks before and after 5 November because there had been a spate of bonfires that had got out of control the year before. With officers highly visible, no houses or fences were burned down. More important still, during the month of increased police presence, all crime fell sharply, including burglaries, car thefts and street crime. The burglars and car thieves didn’t fancy their chances when a uniformed officer might be just round the next corner. It’s an obvious conclusion, but it is nonetheless disputed by police intellectuals who insist that there must be an evidence base for resource allocation and who will not believe anything short of a randomised controlled trial.
Maintaining public safety has always been a strong priority for Conservative Governments, but at present the current regime is falling a long way short of its own ideals.
David Green is CEO of Civitas
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