The Tories are going public with their ‘Dunkirk strategy’

The Tories managed to avoid any major own goals or gaffes during the launch of their manifesto. Given some of the problems over the last few weeks on the Tory campaign that is a cause of relief for Rishi Sunak’s team. As for the contents of the manifesto – which pledged £17 billion of tax cuts – Labour have chosen to attack it as fiscally irresponsible while Tory candidates on the right complain it has not gone far enough in giving their base a reason to go out and vote.

Sunak’s team take issue with both critiques. But they seem to have found a new reason they think could get voters out and ticking the Conservative box on 4 July: fear of a Labour super majority. It was telling that Sunak used his appearance at the launch in Silverstone to warn that on current expectations Labour could be in government for a ‘very long time’ so it was important not to hand Keir Starmer a ‘blank cheque’ – especially as Starmer won’t get into the weeds on what his government will do in power. It comes as the party has started running adverts suggesting the party could be reduced to 57 MPs on election night. This morning, the Defence Secretary Grant Shapps also used the phrase ‘blank cheque’ in reference to Labour as he suggested his party were fighting to prevent a Labour super majority (I wrote a cover on the prospect of a Labour super majority back in April).

As I first reported when Sunak called the election to much bemusement, the Tories strategy is not aimed at victory. Instead, the goal is crash-landing while retaining a core ‘base’ – now defined as the over-65s. ‘If we can fare better than we did in 1997 when we won 165 seats, we will be doing OK,’ says one minister. Privately, some are dubbing this the 200-seat strategy. A pollster refers to it as the ‘Dunkirk strategy’ – to accept defeat and seek to minimise losses. Viewed this way, survival is victory. But now the Tory operation is effectively going public with this strategy. Expect Sunak to keep pushing the idea – in the Sky debate tonight and in other TV appearances – that a vote for anyone other than him is a vote for Starmer. Sunak will though likely stop short of saying he doesn’t think he can win – even if the clear goal at this point is to avoid a wipeout.

The question though remains: will this tempt voters to back the Tories, if they fear a large Labour majority would be bad news for the country? It’s certainly the message some in the cabinet believe is the most compelling. But it rests on voters believing the Tories – rather than, for example, Reform – are best placed to provide opposition. When I followed Nigel Farage around Clacton last week, there were plenty of voters at the rally who believed the Tories ought to be annihilated – in order to get the message that they needed to change. How many voters take that view will decide whether this new messaging from Sunak and his team has the desired effect.