The mood in the bars of Brighton is grim: the Tory lead is down to two points in the latest poll. (As UK polling Report notes, any individual poll should be treated with caution) The poll is, obviously, bad news for the Tories. But it does set the stage for David Cameron’s speech tomorrow. Cameron will deliver the speech without notes and from past experience we know that when he does that he tends to deliver a very good speech—see the 2005 and 2007 conferences for examples. If Cameron can emphasise to the country why it shouldn’t want five more years of Gordon Brown and how the Tories will change things, then the materials will be in place for a fight-back narrative.
There are three options facing the country at the next election: another term of Labour, a hung parliament or a Cameron government. The last option remains by far the best for Britain. I dread to think what will happen to sterling or on the bond markets if on May 7th David Cameron is not Prime Minister. The silver lining for the Tories is that the situation is now primed for Cameron to fully explain to the public why he is the change they need.