The Tory party are finally going to have to decide about Europe. It’ll break them

By the time the G8 is next held in this country, the United Kingdom may well have left the European Union. In the next eight years, the question of whether Britain is in or out will be settled. We know that if David Cameron is Prime Minister after the next election, that decision will be made in 2017. But whoever is in No. 10, a referendum is coming. When it comes, the Tory party will have to decide whether it is for exit or staying in. Either way, it is hard to see the party staying together.

On Monday, we had a preview of the coming argument. David Cameron gave a speech declaring that EU membership ‘is not some national vanity; it is in our national interest’. This would have been relatively uncontroversial even during the bitterest period of John Major’s leadership. Now it’s news — because two senior Cabinet ministers, Michael Gove and Philip Hammond, have publicly declared that membership on the current terms is not in the national interest. Cameron’s speech also swam against an increasingly Eurosceptic tide of opinion in his party.

‘If he’s going to lead the “in” campaign,’ one senior Tory MP remarked to me, ‘I don’t think he can lead the party too.’ At least one loyalist fears that, if Cameron comes back from a Brussels renegotiation saying he’ll campaign to stay in, the chairman of the 1922 Committee will immediately receive enough letters to trigger a vote of no confidence.

The Labour leadership continue to hold out against a European referendum. It would dominate their time in office, and that prospect does not appeal. But even some members of Miliband’s circle know that the boil must be lanced at some point.