There are still some unhappy mutterings about the possibility that the Tories won’t commit to spending 2 per cent of GDP on defence in the next Strategic Defence and Security Review. Treasury sources have been pouring cold water on the suggestion that George Osborne has told David Cameron that spending will fall below that target, but that’s because no-one’s making any decisions until they have to, and they only have to make a decision after the election.
In any case, we’ve probably seen the full extent of the unhappy mutterings in the past few days anyway – at least, until the election is over. Monday’s Defence Questions saw an unprecedented level of open dissent about the spending plans, but that’s about as bad as it will probably get, and that dissent was still only anxious MPs asking rather forceful questions. Those who believe now is the worst time to appear to be ignoring defence are unhappy, and some Tory MPs are making that discomfort clear in public. But while there is undoubtedly international trouble brewing, there isn’t much time for political trouble. No-one wants to rock the boat before the election.
But that doesn’t mean there won’t be political trouble after the election. The joke in the Tory party remains that loyalty evaporates on 8 May, and while defence spending is quite naturally an interest of Liam Fox’s, given he served as Defence Secretary, it’s also pretty useful to put down a marker now about the problems with the current debate. You never know when it might come in handy in a backbench revolt or even a leadership contest.
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