Fraser Nelson

The unemployment pain is only just beginning

The unemployment pain is only just beginning
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This is not even the end of the beginning. Unemployment is rising at the fastest rate since monthly records began, but it will keep rising for two more years. Every month we’ll get this. Every month, Cameron will say “your ‘help’ isn’t working,” and every month he’ll be right. I have two graphs below that make this point. The first compares the monthly rise of this recession to that of Major’s recession. And, below that, the trajectory of this recession versus the previous three. 

Have a look at the bottom scale: that's 36 as in 36 months. Three years of rising unemployment. So it will last right up to the next election and will turn around perhaps in year two of a Cameron government. And that's if he's lucky. By then we'll be talking 3.5m unemployment and at least 6.5m on out-of-work benefits. The only upside is that the monthly rise in unemployment may be soon reaching its peak. (Graphs from CitGroup).

Written byFraser Nelson

Fraser Nelson is the editor of The Spectator. He is also a columnist with The Daily Telegraph, a member of the advisory board of the Centre for Social Justice and the Centre for Policy Studies.

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