Alex Massie Alex Massie

The View from the North

Away from the BNP and the Woes of Brown (which sounds like an Aberfeldy tea-room or something) the other notable european result came in Scotland where the SNP’s handsome victory (29-21 over Labour) confirmed that Labour can no longer automatically consider itself the natural governing party in Scotland. Given that the 2007 Holyrood election was essentially a tie (the SNP winning on away goals), this was the first time the SNP had ever routed Labour in a national election.

Sure, Labour’s difficulties at Westminster played a large part in this, but only a part. Their inability to counter Alex Salmond’s merry band at Holyrood was also a factor. This, even though the nationalists, having enjoyed their first 12 months in power,  endured a more difficult second year in office. Despite Salmond’s local difficulties, Labour has struggled to lay a glove on him.

Theoretically, then, the nationalists are ready to make major gains at Westminster next year. I’m not so sure: in the first place, one ought not to under-estimate the power of ancestral voices. That is, faced with the prospect of a conservative government, some Labour voters will return to the fold.

Secondly, my suspicion is that a higher percentage of the nationalists’ core vote can be relied upon to turn out at european and Holyrood elections than is the case for any of the other parties. That’s one reason for their victory last week. I think.

Thirdly, in 2005 the SNP only won 17% of the vote at the last Westminster elections, leading one to suspect that the electorate had a reasonably sophisticated understanding of the differences between UK and Scottish elections. From that perspective, talk of the Nationalists winning more than 20 seats seems pretty wild to me. Labour’s vote in scotland might have to plummet to something like 25% of the Scottish vote for that to happen.

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