The voice of Baghdad

Peter Kellner analyses the first systematic opinion poll of Iraq, and finds a population full of anxiety — but also convinced that war has made their future brighter

Baghdad is on a knife edge. Three in four of its residents say the city is now more dangerous than when Saddam Hussein was in power. Two in three fear being attacked in the street. Most think that we went to war to grab Iraq’s oil and/or to help Israel. Yet despite these deep concerns, only a minority oppose the American and British invasion, and as few as one in eight want the invaders to leave the country straight away. They want the occupying troops to restore normality and then hand the country back to the Iraqis. In effect, the people of Baghdad are telling the Americans, ‘You say you came to make our lives better. You need to prove you can — and fast.’

Altogether we questioned 798 people last week in all parts of Baghdad. We cannot pretend that our figures are perfect. There are no reliable demographic statistics with which to compare our data. However, we sought to interview broadly equal numbers of men and women in all parts of the city, to obtain a wide spread of age groups, religious affiliations and social backgrounds. In general, we found relatively little difference in the views of different groups. We believe that, as far as is feasible in the circumstances, we have captured the mood of Baghdad at a crucial time in its history — and, indeed, ours.

We started by asking the basic question: was the war against Saddam’s regime right or wrong? Fifty per cent said ‘right’, while just 27 per cent said ‘wrong’. However, 23 per cent declined to offer an opinion. This does not appear to be because of reticence.