The war is redefining Poland’s place in the world

The Polish government has for years been something of a pariah on the liberal international stage. Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party, which is firmly on the political right, is at odds with the EU establishment, particularly over its judicial reforms, which critics say will threaten the key democratic principle of separation of constitutional powers. The EU accuses Poland of undermining the ‘rule of law’ and the European Commission is, as a result, withholding the billions of euros that Poland is due from the Union’s coronavirus recovery fund.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could transform all that. The war raises some almighty diplomatic, economic, security and humanitarian challenges for Poland as Ukraine’s neighbour. Yet it also gives Warsaw a huge opportunity to increase its diplomatic and military profile as a key strategic regional player. Given Poland’s critical geographical location, and the fact that it is Nato’s largest member and top spender on defence in the region, the country now plays a pivotal role in the alliance’s security relationship with Moscow.

Poland’s government and Law and Justice-backed President Andrzej Duda must feel vindicated, having spent years trying to persuade the international community to develop a common, robust response to what they always saw as Vladimir Putin’s neo-imperialist destabilisation of eastern Europe. Warsaw tirelessly pushed Europe to ensure that sanctions on Moscow were maintained and extended.

‘Just think how rich we could have been if only you’d been corrupt.’

For a long time, Law and Justice also criticised Germany and other western powers for their conciliatory approach towards Moscow over the heads of their European allies. A particular point of contention was the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which runs directly from Russia to Germany across the bed of the Baltic Sea and bypasses Poland and Ukraine.

As everyone knows, Berlin has belatedly suspended its approval of the pipeline and is going further, reversing its historical non-intervention policy, sending weapons to Ukraine and increasing its defence spending.