This morning’s ICM poll in The Guardian shows that David Miliband is no silver bullet for Labour’s problems: Cameron leads Miliband by the same margin, 21 points, he does Brown on the question of who would be the best Prime Minister. However, Miliband supporters will argue, as The Guardian’s editorial does, that Miliband’s ratings might improve as the public get to know him while the electorate has already made up its mind about Brown; August’s ICM poll shows that Labour under Brown has seen its support fall by 10 points compared to this time last year, while Tory support has risen by 10 points. It says something about Miliband’s name recognition, or lack of it, that ICM conducted this part of the poll online so that they could show respondents photos of the three men.
Cameron’s people will be delighted by how broad his support is. Cameron is preferred to Brown by voters in every age group, social class and region apart from Scotland. He trumps Miliband among every group except 18 to 24 year olds.
Given how little the public know about the various possible successors to Brown as Labour leader, Labour is unlikely to know for certain whether or not a new leader would improve its standing. (There is, obviously, a risk that the public could come to dislike Labour under a new Prime Minister even more than it currently does). But what it does know is how far it has fallen under Brown—The Guardian notes this morning that “Labour has not trailed by as much for so long since the days of Michael Foot”. That is the compelling case for Labour taking a risk and changing leader.
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