There is a lot more trouble to come on the Rwanda Bill, whatever happens tonight. When James Cleverly told MPs earlier that the emergency legislation complied with international law but was ‘very much pushing at the edge of the envelope’, he was trying to suggest that there was something for everyone. So far all the speeches in the debate on the second reading have suggested that there will be a lot of abstentions, with no Tory MP yet saying they will vote against. The five groups of traditional Tories have just said they ‘cannot support the bill tonight’ – which again is not an instruction to vote it down, and Mark Francois, who delivered the announcement, said they would be seeking changes later in the legislative process. The private chat in the party among those who are sceptical about the Bill is that they still think 20 MPs will rebel and vote against, but that there could be a large number of abstentions. But something for everyone won’t last, because MPs who give furious speeches, like Robert Jenrick, have only refrained from saying they will vote against because they want to improve the legislation.
No. 10 underlined that an assurance about changes was being given to would-be rebels, with the Prime Minister’s spokesperson saying: ‘The Rwandan government’s position is in relation to the international law elements. There are other aspects of the Bill that don’t relate purely to that, so I’m not going to rule out considering any further suggestions that MPs may make or have made. Those conversations are ongoing.’ But it is the international law aspects that Jenrick and others want to change. And it is the international law aspects that One Nation MPs such as Robert Buckland and Bob Neil are saying they are basing their conditional support on. Which means that if the Bill does pass this second reading tonight, it will be with a delayed revolt on the horizon.
Tory whips have been suggesting that at some stage, the Bill could become an issue that necessitates removing the whip from those who rebel. This threat never goes down well, but it also makes little sense to most MPs because it’s not clear which wing of the party this would apply to. In 2019, Boris Johnson stripped Tory MPs of the party whip if they refused to back Brexit. It was brutal but he did so to articulate what his party stood for in the general election. He could do that because he was clear on what he stood for. Tory MPs still aren’t clear which side their Prime Minister is actually on: he can’t remove the whip from both factions of the party.
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