Each day, I can see more clearly a pivotal line from Theresa May’s future biography: ‘Ultimately, her downfall can be traced to one mistake: her failure to seek her own mandate and call and general election in the spring of 2017, when Labour was at its weakest and she was still enjoying a political honeymoon.’
A fortnight ago William Hague made the case for an early election. Since then, the evidence has grown. In the past 24 hours alone the lights outside the Prime Minister’s windows have twice flashed: go to the country now, or you will regret it.
The U-turn on National Insurance for the self-employed should be warning enough. It is hard not to see Hammond’s failure to see that he would be breaking a manifesto promise in terms of the change of personnel in Downing Street. May’s Cabinet does not see itself as a continuation of Cameron’s cabinet and therefore does not feel bound by the manifesto on which he went to the country in 2015. It wasn’t just Hammond who failed to spot the promise on NI – the rest of the cabinet was briefed and apparently failed to spit it either.
But we haven’t voted since 2015 – on anything other than Britain’s membership of the EU. To the rest of us, who are not in the government, that manifesto really does matter. And it is full of other things which are inconvenient to Mrs May. It says nothing about grammar schools. Is she still planning to honour Cameron’s promise to hold a vote, in ‘a government bill, in government time’, on lifting the fox hunting ban? The hunting lobby will want to know why if she doesn’t. I’ve just spotted another manifesto commitment which May’s government has already broken ( and one which, unlike the promise on NI, seems to have escaped the BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg). It says ‘we will freeze the BBC licence fee’. Except that it is now going up on 1 April to £147.
But now comes an even more pressing reason to call an election: the £70,000 fine on the Conservatives for misreporting expenses during the 2015 campaign. It is certain that opposition parties will now press for the results of 2015 constituency votes to be laid aside and byelections to be held. It could mean a bruising battle against Nigel Farage in South Thanet. That is not the sort of distraction you want with a majority of 17. Yet the whole issue could be settled with a general election.
Moreover, there is every sign that Jeremy Corbyn’s adventure at the helm of Labour is finally going to hit the rocks. Once he is gone, things for Labour — to coin a phrase — can only get better. For Theresa May lies ahead the certainty of suffering a dip in popularity.
True, we have a Fixed-Term Parliaments Act which theoretically makes life difficult for a Prime Minister wanting to call an early election, requiring a two thirds vote in the Commons. But how could Corbyn refuse an election when opposition leaders are supposed to relish the chance? On the other hand, why not just repeal the act, which would require a simple majority?
Theresa May still has time to remove the above line from her biography, but only about four weeks. She should enact Article 50 and then go to the country on a solid manifesto of what her government plans to do next.
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