Although Nicola Sturgeon has said a second independence referendum is ‘highly likely’, a recent poll suggests that the Scottish people are inclined to disagree. Earlier this year, a Panelbase survey found that support for a second independence referendum before the UK leaves the EU is at just 27 per cent. What’s more, the majority of Scots — including some who back independence — are not in favour of a second referendum within the next year or two.
This is why both the SNP and the Tories are currently at pains to blame the other side for any future referendum. Of late, Nicola Sturgeon and her SNP colleagues have been doing their best to stress that any future vote is down to the actions of Theresa May’s government and its unquenchable thirst for a hard Brexit. Today the Prime Minister struck back. In a speech to the Scottish Tory conference in Glasgow, May attempted to turn the tables on Sturgeon. She used her speech to call out the SNP’s ‘obsession with independence’ before accusing them of ‘stoking-up endless constitutional grievance and furthering their interests at the expense of Scottish public services like the NHS and education’. May spoke warmly of the union — ‘we are four nations, but at heart one people’ — but warned that she would fight against any decentralisation of power which meant ‘a looser and weaker union’.
Predictably the SNP are already up in arms over the comments — accusing May of betraying the central principle of devolution. However, May’s speech gives us a glimpse of the approach her government will take should a second vote occur. What May’s team perceive to be their strongest card is that a lot of Scots — including some who support independence — don’t want a second referendum. As Alex Massie details in this week’s Spectator cover piece, the SNP’s hopes of a political dividend from Brexit have come to nothing. While three in five Scottish voters backed Remain, the polls suggest that if a referendum were held this month, the result would be much the same as last time: 55pc of Scots would opt to remain in the Union.
Should Sturgeon call a second referendum, May believes there will be a backlash — and she is not willing to take the blame.
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