Next week, Theresa May will sit down with Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee. He will ask her for more clarity on her departure plans. As I say in The Sun this morning, the answer that Mrs May gives will go a long way to determining her future.
On Wednesday, the executive of the 1922 Committee rejected a change to its rules which would allow another vote of confidence in Mrs May’s leadership. But this decision was taken narrowly, 9 to 7 with 2 abstentions, and the executive did decide to ask the Prime Minister for more detail on when she will go.
If Mrs May simply carries on saying that she’ll leave if the withdrawal agreement passes, that will not be enough. A response like this would almost certainly lead to the ’22 executive considering the issue again after the European Elections.
By then, it will be clear whether the withdrawal agreement can be rescued or not. If it can’t be, I would then expect the ’22 to think again on a rule change unless Mrs May sets out a plan for her departure which would allow a new leader to be in place by party conference and before the crucial October European Council. As one of those who voted against a rule change puts it, ‘You won’t keep this at bay forever. But she has a few more weeks to pull a rabbit out of a hat’.
Even Cabinet Ministers who don’t want a contest until Britain is out of the EU, because they fear that would favour candidates who are prepared to Brexit without a deal, accept that things ‘can’t go on like this’. It would also be courting disaster for Mrs May to do another conference as leader given how rapidly grassroots opinion is turning against her.
But Mrs May won’t want to leave without having got a deal through. Without that, she ‘ll have no positive legacy at all. But with Brexit stuck right now, something needs to break this impasse.
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