No wonder that Nigel Farage has decided that he would rather be leader of Reform UK than merely honorary president, and that he would like another shot at standing as an MP in Clacton. He looks as if he is the only politician – with the possible exception of Ed Davey – who is actually enjoying this campaign. Indeed, he seems to have engaged what used to be Boris Johnson’s secret political weapon: optimism. That could prove to be deadly for the Conservatives.
Farage’s thin skin seems to have thickened markedly
Farage hasn’t always been all smiles on the campaign trail. On the contrary, in 2015 Ukip’s then economics spokesman, Patrick O’Flynn, was moved to describe Farage – his then leader – as ‘snarling, thin-skinned and aggressive’; a comment for which O’Flynn later apologised, and resigned – shortly before almost everyone in Ukip also walked away.
Farage has always traded on public fears, and the message hasn’t really changed. The first thing he did in this campaign was to declare that this would be an election about immigration. On Sky News last week he eagerly grabbed the bait that Trevor Phillips hung out for him and started laying into Britain’s Muslim population for what he believes to be its lack of shared values with the rest of the UK population. He started today’s press conference, too, by talking about immigration.
But what has changed is the tone. In his recent interviews – those since his appearance on I’m a Celebrity – he has tried to position himself as a chat show guest. If you analyse his performances, they always begin with a smile and joke. Every photo of him on the campaign trail seems to involve him beaming. The thin skin seems to have thickened markedly. On last week’s Question Time, he appeared to enjoy sparring with a sour Piers Morgan, whose talent to rile even the good-natured is second to none.
Maybe it is the influence of US political campaigning, in which Farage now seems more interested in. The lesson from the US, as Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton both showed, was that an ability to make people feel good about themselves can be a deadly weapon. Who grins, wins. Maybe Farage is just demob happy: he is behaving like a man with a great political triumph behind him and who is on a farewell tour – even if he has said he will serve as Reform leader for five more years.
Either way, he is out-charming the opposition. Smiling politicians aren’t exactly new, of course, though very often it can come across as forced. Rishi Sunak over the past fortnight has looked as if his boyish enthusiasm is going to turn to tears as soon as the cameras stop rolling. Keir Starmer can’t really do charm at all. He doesn’t look interested. Ed Davey seems to be enjoying himself a bit too much – he doesn’t look as if he is really campaigning, more auditioning for a new career as children’s entertainer after inevitable disappointment on 4 July.
If you knew nothing about British politics and tried to judge what was going on purely from photos and small bits of footage from the campaign trail, you would conclude that it was Farage who was heading for the big majority and Starmer who was putting on a brave face about inevitable defeat.
Farage, of course, is not really going to win the election, and neither is he going to cut it as the nation’s uncle. For many British people, he will always be a figure of hate. The Reform party may not win a single seat, let alone challenge for government. But Reform certainly can do the Conservatives an immense amount of damage. If Sunak thought he was out-manoeuvring Farage by calling an early election, it looks as if he has failed.
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