The next election may not be expected for another four years but that won’t stop politicos speculating as to what would happen were a vote called now. Less than six months after Keir Starmer’s landslide election victory, the Sunday Times has published a mega poll which finds that if an election was held today, Keir Starmer would lose his majority and just under 200 seats. However, Labour would still be the largest party with 228 seats – as the vote on the right would split between the Conservatives and Reform.
The Tories would be in second place – six seats behind Labour on 222 seats. Meanwhile, Nigel Farage's Reform party would climb to third place with 72 MPs. The Liberal Democrats would fall into fourth on 58 seats while the SNP would be in fifth on 37 seats. As for the Green party, there is little to suggest a green wave, with the party predicted to be stuck with two MPs. The poll makes particularly uncomfortable reading for the cabinet, with six members tipped to lose their seat to the Reform party. They include Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, John Healey, Ed Miliband, Bridget Philipson and Jonathan Reynolds. The Health Secretary Wes Streeting would also have a fight on his hands to stay in post but his main opponent would be a pro-Gaza independent.
So, what does this poll tell us? There are a few ways of looking at it. The most obvious is that it confirms the trouble the Labour party finds itself in so soon after their election victory. Starmer supporters will reply that it is early days and they have time on their side but it points to why No. 10 is now betting so much on delivery. Without a change to how people feel about their day-to-day lives Starmer's government is in real trouble.
The positive takeaway for Kemi Badenoch is that it shows the Tories – for now at least – remain the main challenger to Labour. While the Reform party is keen to talk Farage up as the next inhabitant of 10 Downing Street, this poll points out that a reasonable good-case-scenario for Reform on their current trajectory is overtaking the Liberal Democrats. Given they are currently on five MPs and are a new party, this in itself would be a huge achievement. Yet the excited talk of late that Farage could soon be prime minister means that this could now be seen as the party falling short. What's more, Reform plan to use 2025 to prove they have the momentum.
Where the poll is less good news for the Tories is on the red wall. In the 2024 general election, Farage's party came second in 89 seats held by Labour. This poll suggests that Reform remains the main challenger in these seats with the Tories struggling to break out beyond their more traditional heartlands. Farage's party looks set to make significant gains in the North East, Greater Manchester and Wales.
What's more, the poll points to a fracturing of the two party system and a hung parliament where Reform could play kingmaker. One of the Tories' big challenges is that they have few parties who would form a coalition or power sharing agreement with them. Given the current war of words between Badenoch and Farage over membership numbers, it's hard to see the pair joining forces anytime soon. But if the polls in the coming months and years continue to show both the Tories and Reform falling short of forging their own path to power, talk of a potential electoral pact will only grow louder.
Katy Balls speaks to Oscar Edmondson and Paul Goodman on the latest Coffee House Shots podcast about Kemi's performance so far as leader of the Conservative Party:
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