Only seven runners are due to line up for the final Classic of the flat season, the Group 1 Betfred St Leger. Unsurprisingly, the small field at Doncaster tomorrow (3.40 p.m.) is dominated by runners trained in Ireland by Co Tipperary maestro Aidan O’Brien.
I had not expected to bet in the race but the sponsors are paying three places and so I can’t resist an each way dabble
Of O’Brien’s three runners, Illinois is top rated and has a favourite’s chance because we know, from his Royal Ascot win in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase in June, that he will stay tomorrow’s trip of more than one mile and six furlongs. However, O’Brien’s other runners, the unbeaten Jan Brueghel and the improving Grosvenor Square, have chances too in a race in which the winner will receive a prize of more than £420,000.
I had not expected to bet in the race but the sponsors are paying three places and so I can’t resist an each way dabble on DEIRA MILE, who was fourth in the Betfred Derby behind City of Troy. His talented handler, Owen Burrows, decided immediately after that race that the horse would be prepared specifically for the St Leger.
Deira Mile put up a distinctly moderate performance when second behind Sea of Roses in a listed race at Windsor last month but I suspect that was very much a prep race for Doncaster. The three-year-old colt will strip a lot fitter tomorrow and should be sharpened up further by the application of first-time blinkers.
Jason Watson takes the mount and I am hoping that, at the very least, the horse can run on into third place but he is not without a winning chance too, particularly if the ground does not dry out too much before the off.
We know Burrows has his string in good form after Nakheel landed the Group 2 Betfred Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster yesterday at odds of 10-1. Back Deira Mile each way at 14-1 with Betfred because the bookie is, as already stated, offering three places, only a couple of points less than those rivals offering just two places.
Lambourn trainer Jonny Portman did this column a favour two weeks ago when his horse, Two Tempting, won at Chester at a double figure price and he is another handler with his string in good form: four winners from 19 runners over the past fortnight for a winning strike rate of 21 per cent.
I hope Portman’s four-year-old gelding RUMSTAR can spring something of a surprise tomorrow by landing the 22-runner Betfred Portland Handicap (2.25 p.m.).
Rumstar has run as many bad races as good ones this season but I like the fact that his official handicap mark had dropped to 101 from a peak of 109 a year ago. He also ran well at Goodwood in the Coral Stewards’ Cup on his penultimate start, when seventh of the 25 runners despite being denied a clear run over a furlong out.
Rumstar will be suited by tomorrow’s big field and the slightly unusual trip of five and a half furlongs. I hope he is ridden prominently and, unlike Deira Mile, he will be favoured if the ground dries out more. Hector Crouch takes the mount and so back Rumstar each way at 16-1 with bet365 paying six places.
However, I want to go into this hugely competitive race double-handed with BERGERAC too. Trainer Kevin Ryan’s six-year-old gelding went straight into my horse tracker after his run at York last time out when, despite finishing only sixth, he won his race of the 11 runners racing on the unfavourable near side.
Like Rumstar, he will be suited by the drying ground and the trip, while jockey Tom Eaves knows the horse well. Back Bergerac each way at 14-1 with either Paddy Power or Betfair, both offering five places.
Pending:
1 point each way Rumstar at 16-1 forthe Portland Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Bergerac at 14-1 forthe Portland Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Deira Mile at 14-1 forthe St Leger, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Dual Identity at 33-1 forthe Cambridgeshire, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Premiere Ligne at 33-1 for the Cesarewitch, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Al Riffa at 14-1 for the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe, paying 1/5th odd, 3 places.
Last weekend: – 2 points.
1 point each way Swingalong at 15-2 for the Sprint Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2024 flat season running total + 8.6 points.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 15 of the past 17 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 517 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a point is your chosen regular stake).
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