Newmarket trainer Harry Eustace is a master at targeting his best horses at big races. If there were those who did not know it before this year’s Royal Ascot, they certainly knew it afterwards. He landed two winners at the five-day meeting from his relatively-small string: Docklands (put up at 25-1 in this blog) at 14-1 and Time for Sandals at 25-1.
One of his near misses at the meeting was Divine Comedy who was a close fifth in the Ascot Stakes over two and a half miles despite a troubled run in the home straight. Ever since that run, tomorrow’s Club Godolphin Cesarewitch (Newmarket 3.40 p.m.) has been the end-of-season target for this seven-year-old mare.
In fact, she has had just one run since then, very much a prep for tomorrow’s big handicap when a close second in a six-runner field at Goodwood. Divine Comedy is a better horse on soft ground but, especially this season, she rarely gets it. However, some of her best runs have been on good to firm going so she is not totally ground dependent.
I put up Divine Comedy each way at 20-1 for the Cesarewitch more than a month ago and, if the ground had been the slower side of good, I would have simply suggested doubling up the stake today at 14-1, with up to six places now on offer with some bookies.
However, even with watering this week, the terrain is likely to be good to firm by the off tomorrow and, as a flat-only horse, the statistics are against Divine Comedy too. That’s because the last flat-only campaigner to prevail in this race was Withhold for trainer Roger Charlton in 2017.
So it makes sense to go into the race double-handed with a dual-purpose horse (one that races on the flat and over jumps) that likes fast ground. I had expected that horse to be Reverend Hubert, who demolished a decent field in the Cesarewitch trial at Newmarket earlier this month.
However, he is now no bigger than 7-1 which is skinny for a race of this nature over two miles two furlongs and with a field of 21 runners. He ran in the Cesarewitch a year ago when he was only eighth but that can be put down to the soft ground. He is a fast-ground performer and he will love the surface tomorrow.
Reverend Hubert is arguably the most likely winner of the race tomorrow and it is only his cramped odds that prevent me from putting him up today, all the more so now that he has car park drawn in stall 21.
Instead, I am going to go for value and put up an 11-year-old gelding from Ireland in the shape of Willie Mullins’s WINTER FOG, the outsider of the trainer’s three runners in the race. Winter Fog has only run three times on the flat which explains why he has a modest official rating of just 84. His main targets have been over hurdles and he was third, no less, in a messy running of the Unibet Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in March when he was allowed to go off at 150-1.
That run and others, too, make Winter Fog very well handicapped tomorrow on his best hurdles’ form. Furthermore, his trainer, Willie Mullins has won three of the past seven runnings of the race, including with an outsider (Stratum at 25-1 in 2018). Back Winter Fog 1 point each way at 20-1 with Paddy Power or Sky Bet, both paying six places.
There are dangers aplenty including Ian Williams’ Beylerbeyi who is well handicapped and could easily land this if he stays the trip. However, I would prefer to back two horses I know have enough stamina for this race rather than one whose staying-power is in question.
A couple of my favourite veteran handicappers are due to run against each other today in the William Hill Autumn Cup Mile at York (1.30 p.m.): Northern Express and BOPEDRO. The former is the current favourite at 9-2 but that’s a short price for a horse that has only won once in the past two seasons and one that hasn’t been given much slack by the handicapper.
At a bigger price, preference is for David O’Meara’s nine-year-old gelding, another who doesn’t win often, indeed his last victory was back in August 2023. However, Bopedro has run some huge races this season, notably when third in the Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot.
Bopedro also has good course form on quick ground at York when wearing a visor – as he is today – and he is now down to a handy official rating of 94. Back him 1 point each way at 15-2 with race sponsors William Hill, paying five places in this 17-runner contest.
Looking ahead to Qipco-sponsored Champions Day in eight days’ time, it is highly likely that those trainers who have kept their soft-ground horses fresh for the big day expecting the usual conditions – soft or heavy ground – are going to be disappointed. If you fancy a good-ground horse, then now is the time to back it because all the weather forecasts I can see suggest another dry week is looming.
I try only to put up ante-post bets when I have had a strong indication that the horse is going to run in a certain race because backing non-runners is bad for the long-term bank balance. However, I am going to make an exception with WEMIGHTAKEDLONGWAY, who was fourth in the Betfred Oaks at Epsom and then second in the Irish Oaks at the Curragh, both times behind the talented Minnie Hauk.
Wemightakedlongway then had a mid-season break before running a close fourth in the Prix de l’Opera Longines at Longchamp last weekend over an inadequate trip of ten furlongs. With lots of those still in the British Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes either going to be non runners or going to be unsuited by the likely fast ground, I hope that Joseph O’Brien’s three-year-old will make a quick racecourse re-appearance a week tomorrow (18 October).
However, I have no information, in the public domain or through my own sources, on whether or not she is likely to be Ascot bound. Nevertheless, back Wemightakedlongway 1 point each way at 20-1 with bet365, Betfred, Sky Bet, Paddy Power or Betfair, all offering three places. If she does run next weekend, I would expect her to be single-figure odds.
Finally, thank you for the many generous messages in the Comment section about Daryz’s win in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Sunday. Put up at 14-1 two days before the race, I certainly landed a nice touch and it seems plenty of Spectator Life readers did too.
Pending:
1 point each way Bopedro at 15-2 for the Autumn Mile, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Winter Fog at 20-1 for the Cesarewitch, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Divine Comedy at 20-1 for the Cesarewitch, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Waardah at 8-1 for the Fillies & Mares Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Wemightakedlongway at 20-1 for the Fillies & Mares Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
Last weekend: + 12.8 points
2 points win Candy at 11-2 for the Rous Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Balmacara at 20-1 for the Challenge Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Daryz at 14-1 for the Arc, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. 1st + 16.8 points.
2025 flat season running total: + 89.62 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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