Most racehorse trainers are creatures of habit and they love to target races which they have won in previous years. Alan King consistently hopes to win the Wigley Group Classic Handicap with one of his best staying chasers. He has enjoyed regular success in the race, winning it no less than three times, in 2008, 2011 and 2021.
It’s only a matter of time before Derham lands a major prize with one of his talented string
This year’s contest (Warwick 3 p.m., tomorrow), run over three miles five furlongs, has long been the target for King’s talented chaser, MAJOR DUNDEE, and the Wiltshire-based handler would like his nine-year old gelding to win the race in good style for two main reasons. First, the race has a pot worth nearly £57,000 to the winner and, secondly, Major Dundee needs to go up significantly in the official ratings to have a chance of running in this year’s Randox Grand National.
Major Dundee currently has an official rating of 135 and he would need it to rise to 147 to be virtually certain of making the cut for the National on 13 April, now that the maximum number of runners has been reduced to 34. King has made no secret of his desire to run Major Dundee at Aintree this year.
Major Dundee’s form this season has been decidedly average: third of just seven runners on his seasonal debut at Warwick in November and then a well beaten fifth of ten runners in the Coral Welsh Grand National Trial at Chepstow last month behind Gary Moore’s huge improver, Nassalam. Although Major Dundee has won on soft ground in the past, it is pretty clear that heavy ground at Chepstow is not his bag and I expect a far better performance from him tomorrow.
A glance back over his form from the previous two seasons shows that Major Dundee has run some excellent races in major staying handicaps chases, being third in the Coral Scottish Grand National at Ayr in April 2022 and landing the Boulton Group Midlands Grand National at Uttoxeter in March last year.
Major Dundee, who is a fine jumper of fences, opened up on Monday afternoon at odds of 20-1 with Paddy Power and Betfair for tomorrow’s race but those prices were gone with a couple of hours. He has been steadily backed all week down to half of his original odds.
Still, I am not going to desert Major Dundee now, especially as the drying ground is in his favour: back him each way at 10-1 with BetVictor, Ladbrokes or Coral, all offering four places. It is a shame that Tom Cannon and Rex Dingle, the horse’s regular riders, are unavailable for the mount, but Jonathan Burke is a top stand-in who has a good record in big handicaps.
I had expected to go into the race double handed with Malina Girl because she looks a much improved mare this season, winning at Cheltenham in November before coming down three fences out at the same course last month when in the process running a huge race off her new handicap mark.
Malina Girl, however, has also halved in price over the past four days and is now favourite with most bookies at around 5-1. That’s short for a horse that fell last time out and this small, compact mare carries top weight too. Much as I love the horse, I don’t love her price and so I will not be backing her now.
Instead, I think the other bit of value in the race could be to back Laura Morgan’s likeable chaser, PERCUSSION. This nine-year-old gelding has run two mighty races this season to be placed in the Boylesports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase and the Boylesports Becher Handicap Chase, both run over the National fences.
Percussion was carrying 6lbs more than his allotted weight at Aintree last time out due to being out of the handicap but he will carry his ‘proper’ weight tomorrow. I think both the longer distance and the quicker ground will be in his favour. He’s 14-1 with several bookmakers but back him each way with William Hill, offering five places.
A week ago, I was keen on the chances of both Lord Du Mesnil and Ramses De Teillee in the final of the Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase. That was because the race was due to be run on bottomless ground at Haydock. However, that meeting was eventually lost to the weather and the race has been rescheduled for Warwick tomorrow (3.35 p.m.).
Both horses are due to line up again in the race but, although they could win, neither will be carrying my money this time on ground that is drying and could be edging towards ‘good to soft’ by the off. I suspect the duo may get outpaced by good ground horses such as Aye Right and Good Time Bobby so it’s become a ‘no bet’ race for me to watch and enjoy.
Instead, my third and final bet on tomorrow’s fare is on another of Laura Morgan’s talented geldings, NOTLONGTILLMAY. Two of his last three runs, both at Cheltenham, were hugely impressive, filling the runner-up spot on both occasions behind Paul Nicholls’ Stage Star, including in the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase at last year’s Festival.
Notlongtillmay would probably prefer softer ground that he is likely to encounter at Kempton tomorrow in the Grade 2 Coral Silviniaco Conti Chase (Kempton, 2.07pm) but, on the plus side, the conditions of the race mean that he receives weight from all of his rivals.
It’s a competitive five-runner contest but the odds on Nolongtillmay are too big compared with his chances. Back him 2 points win at 13/2 with bet365, SkyBet, BetVictor or Betfred. I would prefer to see his regular pilot, Adam Wedge, in the saddle but he is riding for his retained stable at Wetherby. However, jockey David Noonan is an able enough substitute.
I am also keen to have an ante-post bet on the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on 10 February – a hugely competitive contest that could attract a maximum field of 24 runners.
I put up Harry Fry’s Altobelli for the Betfair Exchange Trophy Hurdle at Ascot just before Christmas and I was disappointed that he could not win that race off a mark of 132. He was third that day (put up at 12-1 each way for a modest profit) and could easily go two places better on likely softer ground and in a bigger field at Newbury but I will refrain from backing him for now.
Instead I want to be on BRENTFORD HOPE each way at 14-1 with William Hill, Coral or Ladbrokes. I have been hugely impressed with the training skills this season of Harry Derham, yet another former assistant to Paul Nicholls to make his mark in his own right.
It’s only a matter of time before Derham lands a major prize with one of his talented string. Brentford Hope already has winning form at Newbury and will relish the hurly-burly of this race on likely soft ground. Derham recently made it clear that the Betfair Hurdle is Brentford Hope’s next big target and so, barring a setback, we should get a run for our money in the race.
2023-4 jumps season
Pending:
2 points win Notlongtillmay at 13/2 in the Silviniaco Conti Chase.
1 point each way Major Dundee at 10-1 in the Classic Chase, 1/5th odds, paying 4 places.
1 point each way Percussion at 14-1 in the Classic Chase, 1/5th odds, paying 5 places.
1 point each way Brentford Hope at 14-1 in the Betfair Hurdle, ¼ odds, paying 4 places.
1 point each way Stumptown at 12-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Djelo at 20-1 NRNB for the Turners Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Home By The Lee at 28-1 for the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, five places.
There were no settled bets from last weekend.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 2.95 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
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