Armchair sports fans are in for a treat this weekend and I am not just talking about England’s appearance in the final of Euro 2024 or the Wimbledon finals. Racing enthusiasts can look forward to watching 11 races on ITV tomorrow afternoon spread over just 170 minutes.
This is so-called ‘Super Saturday’ when there is almost endless live action from three big meetings: Newmarket, York and Ascot. It’s not all about quantity either because there is quality too: Newmarket stages the Group 1 My Pension Expert July Cup (4.35 p.m.) and there are plenty of other high-class races, handicaps and non-handicaps alike, on all three cards.
The July Cup, over six furlongs, is often the race in which the top three-year-old sprinters in the country clash with their older rivals for the first time: because of their youth, the younger generation have a weight-for-age allowance. Kevin Ryan’s Inisherin, an improving three-year-old and the winner of the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, looks to be the right favourite but odds of around 5-2 make zero appeal. This is a contest for me simply to watch and enjoy.
As always, the going will be key to the outcome of many of the races at the three meetings. There has been plenty of rain about all week but the ground is drying now up and down the country. As a result, it seems unlikely that the going will be any worse than ‘good to soft’ at any of the three tracks by tomorrow afternoon.
I have already nailed my colours to the wall with my two fancies for the Bet365 Bunbury Cup over seven furlongs at Newmarket (4 p.m.). I put up Carrytheone each way at 10-1 two weeks ago and Gorak each way at 25-1 last week. Both horses are much shorter in the betting now and I am hopeful that they will run well.
At odds of up to 20-1, the horse that now looks overpriced in the race is Darkness, given he is two wins from two runs on the July course. Even with his 6 lbs penalty for his win over this course and distance last month, David O’Meara’s six-year-old gelding looks well handicapped on last season’s form but, on balance, I can’t bring myself to put a third horse up in the same race.
At York, the big handicap tomorrow is the John Smith’s Cup (3.10 p.m.) and, just with the Bunbury Cup, it is a hugely competitive affair. Haunted Dream, Epic Poet, Liberty Lane and Botanical head the market: the first two on the basis of their fine runs at Royal Ascot. However, at single-figure odds none of the top four in the betting interests me.
Instead, I will take a chance with two horses at much bigger prices. DUAL IDENTITY was slightly disappointing last weekend when only sixth to Cicero’s Gift in the Coral Challenge at Sandown, but he was only beaten by two and a half lengths.
Trainer William Knight, whose string are in fine form (seven winners from 21 runners over the past fortnight), has tomorrow opted to use Brandon Wilkie, an apprentice jockey with a 5lbs claim and who is also in excellent form (five winners from 24 rides in the past fortnight). Wilkie’s allowance will be a big bonus and so back Dual Identity each way at 25-1 with Paddy Power, paying six places.
I also want to be on PARADIAS from the Alan King yard, who was second last time out at Epsom which showed that he is fit and well. However, it was his run last season at York that really caught my eye when he was fifth in the Sky Bet Handicap over a mile and a half.
Paradias looked sure to win that race when he hit the front in the straight but his stamina failed him in the final furlong. Tomorrow’s trip of a furlong and a half less looks ideal so back this five-year-old gelding each way too, this time at 14-1 but again with Paddy Power, paying six places.
Finally, NORTHERN EXPRESS is a real favourite of mine because for the last two seasons he has been super-consistent in big handicaps over seven furlongs and a mile. Michael Dods’ six-year-old gelding has to carry top weight of 10 stone 2 lbs in tomorrow’s John Smith’s Racing Handicap at York (2 p.m.) and that has clearly put many punters off.
However, the 9-1 on offer with Bet365 looks too big given how much the horse likes racing at York so back Northern Express each way with that bookie paying five places.
So, with the two ante-post bets in the Bunbury Cup, that means followers of my tips will have five runners carrying their hard earned tomorrow and that means plenty of interest in the ‘Super Saturday’ fare.
Pending:
1 point each way Northern Express at 9-1 in the John Smith’s Racing Handicap, paying 1/5thodds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dual Identity at 25-1 in the John Smith’s Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Paradias at 14-1 in the John Smith’s Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Carrytheone at 10-1 for the Bunbury Cup, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Gorak at 25-1 for the Bunbury Cup, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way The Wizard of Eye at 12-1 for the International Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
Last weekend: + 5.8 points
1 point each way Makarova at 13-2 for the Coral Charge, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 1st. + 7.8 points.
1 point each way Two Tempting at 15/2 for the Coral Challenge, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2024 flat season running total + 16.5 points.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 15 of the past 17 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit has been 517 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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