The Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (3.30 p.m.) is the highlight of day two of the Cheltenham Festival and – despite Jonbon’s defection this morning – it provides an intriguing seven-runner contest over two miles.
There are various arguments to be made for the top two in the market – El Fabiolo and Edwardstone – each winning this £225,000 pot. However, both potential frailties too: El Fabiolo has not always convinced with his jumping and Edwardstone’s runs have lacked consistency this season.
The Cheltenham Festival is a marathon not a sprint and there is plenty to look forward to
I would rather dabble each way on Henry de Bromhead’s gelding CAPTAIN GUINNESS, who is an old favourite of mine and a regular here at the Festival. On the down side, he has yet to win a Grade 1 chase and, at nine years old, this is may be his last big chance of doing so.
However, he seems as good as ever on his best form this season and he has been nibbled at in the betting market over the past two days which indicates that stable confidence is high. Back him each way at 8-1 with bet365, offering two places.
Of the other six races today, I already have ante-post bets recommended in three of the contests and they are generally looking promising.
Libberty Hunter has been backed into favouritism for the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase (4.50 p.m.). I fancy him more strongly than ever now that he has his preferred cut in the ground and the 12-1 that he was put up at has long gone.
There are dangers aplenty but the one horse that could certainly beat him on merit if he runs up to his very best is HARPER’S BROOK. Ben Pauling’s gelding has an abundance of talent and he could be a graded horse when he is on top form.
Sadly, the horse also has an abundance of quirks and has shown a tendency to put on the brakes just as he looked like winning comfortably. He would probably prefer better ground too. However, in the hope that he is on a going day, just as he was when winning last time out at Sandown, back Harper’s Brook each way at 14-1 with bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power or Betfair, all paying five places.
In the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (2.50 p.m.), I have already put up Doddiethegreat at 12-1. Unfortuantely, with Nicky Henderson’s horses still under a cloud (five out of six of his runners were pulled up yesterday), he is not certain to be at his best today.
I will therefore go in double-handed in this two miles five furlong contest which is full of ‘plot horses’. Harry Fry’s MIGHT I is talented but he has not taken to fences and is now back over hurdles. He has good course form including when fourth at the Festival a year ago in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle, yet he comes here off an official mark 3 lbs lower than for that contest.
Back Might I each way at 12-1 with SkyBet. There are bigger odds on offer elsewhere but SkyBet is offering a generous eight places on this race.
In the Grade 1 Brown Advisory Novices Chase (2.10 p.m.), Fact To File arrives with a formidable reputation as a potential Gold Cup winner of the future but, even with strong form on the track too, his short odds are not for me.
I put up Giovinco in this race all of four months ago but he has had a mixed season since then. He remains at similar odds to what he was back in November – that’s 20-1 – but, in a six-horse race, at least we have three places not two from that bet.
Ballyburn is another Willie Mullins horse with a giant reputation and top form too, and so he should trot up in the Gallagher Novices’ Hurdle, the first race on today’s card at 1.30 p.m. However, at odds of around 2-5 he is not a betting proposition once again and I have no each-way fancies.
The Glenfarclas Chase (4.10 p.m.) is, as a cross country race, not for everyone’s tastes but I enjoy these unique contests. Gordon Elliott runs three horses with a massive chance. My marginal preference is for Coko Beach but he has halved in price over the past few days and so he offers no value at around 11/4, especially with Minello Indo, from the De Bromhead yard, also in with a strong shout.
I wouldn’t be touching the last race on the card, the Weatherbys Champion Bumper (5.30 p.m.), with the proverbial barge pole because it’s far too hard to unravel the likely outcome.
I am well aware yesterday was not the start we wanted on the tipping front, but fortunately, the Cheltenham Festival is a marathon not a sprint and there is plenty to look forward to over the coming three days of racing.
I will be back again tomorrow at similar time with my best bets on day three of the Festival.
Pending:
1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Captain Guinness at 8-1for the Champion Chase, paying 1/4 odds, 2 places..
1 point each way Harper’s Brook at 14-1 for the Grand Annual Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Libberty Hunter at 12-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Doddiethegreat at 12-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Might I at 12-1 for the Coral Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 8 places.
1 point each way Djelo at 20-1 NRNB for the Turners Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Home By The Lee at 28-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Bowtogreatness at 20-1 NRNB for the Kim Muir, 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Bravemansgame at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Vanillier at 16-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Panda Boy at 40-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
Settled bets from yesterday:
1 point each way Hunters Yarn at 8-1 in the Arkle Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Stumptown at 12-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Nemean Lion in the Champion Hurdle at 28-1, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Love Envoi at 11-1 in the Mares Hurdles, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each ay Palamon in the Boodles Hurdle at 16-1, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Apple Away at 15/2 for the NH Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 5.61 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
- My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
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