I have a policy of not betting or tipping on jump racing until at least the first week of November. That’s because the early season form over chases and hurdles is so difficult to predict in that it is hard to know which horses are fit from their summer break and which are not.
Having said that, there is no doubt that the jumps cards at Cheltenham and Kelso tomorrow excite me far more than anything offered up on the level by Doncaster or Newbury. Yet, I will nevertheless stick to my self-imposed punting rules.
If this race was run every Saturday for a year, there would be a different result each time
At the time of writing first thing on Friday morning, the Saturday cards at both Doncaster and Newbury were under threat from the weather. At the very least, the ground is almost certain to be ‘heavy’ at both tracks which generally makes betting more of a lottery. Of course, is it sensible to back horses that like extreme cut in the ground but, even then, form on ‘heavy’ ground is no guarantee of a good run.
Tomorrow’s William Hill Farewell Flat Handicap (Doncaster, 3.20 p.m.) has thrown up a pretty poor field of largely exposed, veteran handicappers despite a pot of more than £25,000 to the winner. I would love Copper Knight to win the race, given he is such a great warrior in sprint handicaps and that he celebrates his tenth birthday in just over two months’ time.
This race will also be the 90th of his long career. However, Copper Knight would prefer this race to be run at York where he excels and, although he prefers cut in the ground, he has never been at his very best in a quagmire.
The result of the William Hill Catterick Dash Handicap could be the key to this race as it was run on heavy ground just a week ago and the first three home that day all re-oppose tomorrow. Count D’orsay, who was third, is, however, 4 lbs out of the handicap tomorrow so I will give him a miss.
GLORIOUS ANGEL, down in trip last time out, looked as though she had got up late to win last weekend but the online photograph showed that Vintage Clarets had prevailed by the shortest of short heads. However, Glorious Angel is 1 lb better off at the weights tomorrow and, at just three years old, she surely has more scope for improvement. Back Grant Tuer’s filly two points win at 7-1 with most bookies.
If this race was run every Saturday for a year, there would be a different result each time so that’s not the ideal basis on which to have a big bet.
At Newbury tomorrow the most intriguing race of the day is the Groups 3 BetVictor St Simon Stakes (1.30 p.m.) over a mile and a half. As officially the highest-rated horse in the race, Hamish is a worthy favourite and he goes for a four-timer tomorrow having been three from three to date this season.
The seven-year-old gelding relishes very soft ground and looks sure to run well for his trainer, William Haggas, and his jockey Tom Marquand. However, he is a skinny price at just 6-4 in a seven-horse field which includes some decent performers.
At the prices, my preference is for the Irish raider, WHITE BIRCH, for theJohn Joseph Murphy/Shane Foley trainer/jockey combination. This three-year-old grey colt displayed some strong form earlier in the season, notably when third to Auguste Rodin in the Betfred Epsom Derby.
That race was run on fast ground but he has winning form on ‘heavy’ from his seasonal debut at Leopardstown. Back him two points win at 11-2 with William Hill in the hope that he recaptures his very best form.
At Kelso tomorrow, all eyes will be on this year’s Randox Grand National winner, Corach Rambler, in the Edinburgh Gin Chase (1.29 p.m.). This nine-year-old gelding is a real favourite of mine, all the more so since I put him up at 20-1 in this column for the Aintree marathon long before he duly obliged in April.
Tomorrow’s race is a handicap and he therefore has to concede a lot of weight to all his rivals. Apparently, his astute Scottish handler, Lucinda Russell, wants to find out whether or not Corach Rambler could be a Gold Cup horse before aiming him again at the Grand National.
Cheltenham has missed the worst of the rain and so ground conditions should be ideal for its opening two-day meeting starting today. Christian Williams is a brilliant target trainer and he looks to have been aiming his horse, Strictlyadancer, at the Close Brothers Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (today, 4.30 p.m.) for at least a couple of months. Indeed, he booked talented amateur Gina Andrews for the race all of six weeks ago.
However, quite apart from my no-bet-on-the-jumps-until-November rule, this course and distance winner is now a skinny price at around 11-2 in a 20-runner contest. So it is easy to give him a miss, gambling wise, and to simply enjoy the whole two-day Cheltenham meeting without having a bet.
2023 flat season running total: – 46.22 points.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Pending:
2 points win White Birch at 11-2 in the St Simon Stakes.
2 points win Glorious Angel at 7-1 in the William Hill Farewell Flat Handicap.
Settled bets from last week:
1 point each way Bluestocking at 9-1 in the Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, five places. 2nd. + 0.8 points.
1 point each way Awaal at 12-1 in the Balmoral Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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