Tom Tugendhat last night became the second Tory candidate to declare in the Conservative leadership contest. Just like his former Home Office colleague James Cleverly, he chose to make his pitch in an op-ed for the Telegraph, declaring that he would be prepared to leave the European Court on Human Rights. It came just a few hours after nominations opened for the leadership race, with further candidates expected to declare over the coming days.
Tugendhat, 51, first entered parliament in 2015 and has always, perhaps unfairly, been caricatured by some as a figure of the Tory left. A Remainer, patron of the Tory Reform Group and longtime critic of Boris Johnson, his previous bid for leader in 2022 ended after he attracted 31 MPs in the third round of voting. To go further this time – and address some of those predictable criticisms – Tugendhat is making a pitch that stresses his credentials as a figure of the centre-right. Henry Hill of ConservativeHome notes that his ‘actual voting record is much sounder (to use the Tory parlance) than his public image might lead people to expect.’
His Telegraph article declares that ‘if institutions do not serve the British people and make it harder to control our own borders, then we will have to exempt ourselves from them, or leave their jurisdiction.’ This is in line with Rishi Sunak’s position at the last election – though it was not one espoused enthusiastically by some of Tugendhat’s colleagues in the One Nation Group. In his media round this morning, he denied ‘political opportunism’, insisting that ‘I am prepared to leave the ECHR, or indeed any other institution that doesn’t serve the interests of the British people.’
However, Tugendhat has also suggested that policy will not be a key factor in this contest and that there is broad agreement on ‘the ECHR, gender, tax rates, defense spending, net zero.’ Instead, he is making character central to his pitch. For Tugendhat, it’s about public trust: ‘Politics, like life, comes down to one simple rule: keep your promises. When the Conservative party does that, it wins,’ he wrote. Tugendhat, a veteran and Sinosceptic, points to his record as proof that he can he do this:
I live by a simple rule. If I say I’ll do something, I do it. I swore to serve King and Country, so I fought our enemies in Iraq and Afghanistan. I fought them again in government as security minister under two Conservative prime ministers. I didn’t win every argument I had then, but I won the important fight, to keep the country safe from terrorism. I said I’d stand up to dictators, which is why China’s Communist government has sanctioned me, hacked me and targeted me.
Already, he has launched a rather snazzy website, encouraging Tory members to sign up with gusto. So how far will Tugendhat go? He should clear the first hurdle with ease by obtaining the ten MPs necessary to get on the ballot by Monday afternoon. Thereafter, we have a month of campaigning around the country before MPs’ vote in the first week of September to produce a final four. Most of Tugendhat’s colleagues I’ve spoken to think he will be in the quartet presented to members at party conference at the beginning of October.
Pollster James Johnson has noted that in most leadership surveys of members Tugendhat has come in the top three. He came second in the final pre-election ConHome cabinet league table and can count on enthusiastic financial backers to support his efforts across the country. As so often in Tory leadership contests, it might just come down to momentum. If Tugendhat can establish himself as an early front-runner, he will stand a much better chance of convincing MPs that he has the star factor deserving to make the final two.
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