ICM for The Guardian and YouGov for the Sun tonight both point towards a hung parliament. ICM has the Tories on 33 down three from the last ICM poll, Labour down one to 28 and the Lib Dems up one to 28 and others up four to 12. YouGov puts the Tories on 34, the Lib Dems up one to 29 and Labour on 28. Polling on a Bank holiday weekend is particularly difficult. But these two polls will put a bit of a dent in the media narrative that a Tory majority is becoming the most likely result.
It’ll be interesting to see if some of the Tory support that The Guardian poll finds has moved to UKIP comes back on polling day. One finding that will encourage the Tory high command is that Cameron is regarded as the most competent potential PM by 38 percent of those surveyed, a 12 points advantage over Brown and a 17 point one over Clegg.
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