Sebastian Payne

Tories ahead again in first post-Budget poll 

Tories ahead again in first post-Budget poll 
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The Tories have pushed ahead of Labour again after George Osborne's successful Budget. In tonight's poll from YouGov/The Sun, the Conservatives are ahead by two points on 35 per cent while Labour are on 33 per cent. The Lib Dems have seen no shift, remaining steady on eight per cent, while Ukip is on 13 per cent and the Greens on six per cent.

Budgets always tend to produce an immediate polling bounce for the incumbent party — assuming the Budget isn't badly received. The Tories, though, will be pleased that they are back in the lead after falling behind Labour in the past week. As with all the recent polls, it's worth noting that this lead, and the movements in this poll, remain within the margin of error. Tories will now be wondering if this lead can stabilise or whether they will continue to vie with Labour for first place. If the latter is true, predicting the general election outcome will remain nigh on impossible.

There's another new poll out this evening containing bad news for Labour. Survation has conducted a poll in Scotland for the Daily Record which shows the SNP's lead is growing. Compared to the last Survation poll in February, the SNP are up two points to 47 per cent, Labour is down one point to 26 per cent, the Tories are up one point to 16 per cent while the Lib Dems have dropped to just four per cent. It was assumed that the SNP's polling gains after the independence referendum would be erode as polling day approached. But so far, the Nats' support showing no signs of ebbing away.