Sebastian Payne

Tories six points ahead in new Ashcroft poll and three points ahead according to ICM

Two new polls out today have the Tories ahead. Lord Ashcroft’s latest national poll says the Conservatives currently have a six point lead at per cent — up two points from last week — while Labour remains on 30 per cent. Ashcroft has Ukip down slightly to 11 per cent and the Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent. The Guardian/ICM also put the Tories ahead in their new poll today, putting the Conservatives on 35 per cent and Labour on 32 per cent.

It’s worth noting that both the Ashcroft and ICM polls were conducted by telephone. There are two other polls out today, conducted online, which show the opposite result.  The latest survey from YouGov has Labour two points ahead on 34 per cent, while a new Populus/FT poll has Labour three points ahead on 36 per cent. Apart from Ashcroft, the leads for each party are still within the margin of error. But the it’s clear the Tories are doing better in telephone polls, so next Thursday’s result will settle which method is the most accurate.

ICM has also asked which was the single issue most concerning voters. In one slight piece of good news for Labour, the NHS ranked as the top issue first at 30 per cent. Jobs, prices, wages followed at 16 per cent and 14 per cent said immigration. The ‘fears of smaller parties holding government to ransom’ was expressed as the most concerning issue by just five per cent. The telephone poll was conducted over the weekend, as the Tories’ attacks on the SNP continued. Possibly in relation to this, voters just about see the Tory campaign as more negative than positive: 45 per cent said the party is a running a negative campaign, compared to 44 per cent who said it was positive.

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